Tripura’s polls are no longer those of the State alone

Elections in Tripura have rarely had national implications. The small State is remotely located in North-East India, and has a population of barely 35 lakh.

But the Assembly poll this year will matter. There is a lot at stake for the major parties in the fray. Tripura voted on Sunday and the results will be out next month.

The stakes are obviously high for the Left. In Bengal, where they ruled for 34 years until 2011, the CPI(M)-led coalition is hopelessly out of the reckoning, with the BJP coming up as the main rival to the ruling Trinamool Congress. In Kerala, the Left is in power and still has a strong base; but the southern State swings the other way every five years.

Unique political equation

During the 25 years it has been in power in Tripura, the ruling Left Front maintained a special relationship with governments in Delhi, almost unaffected by the vagaries of national politics. And, it brought dividends to the State leadership.

For instance, the Congress leadership in Tripura rues that prime minister PV Narsimha Rao’s government imposed President’s rule in the State in March 1993, when it was under the party’s rule. Since then the Congress hasn’t returned to power, despite having approximately 40 per cent vote share.

Again, the first BJP-led NDA government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004) played a crucial role in helping Chief Minister Manik Sarkar neutralise secessionist forces by fencing the Bangladesh border. Sarkar, who will complete 20 years in power on March 11, has always regarded his performance on ensuring law and order as one of his major achievements.

The UPA government of Manmohan Singh (2004-2014), went out of its way to bring development to Tripura. Metre-gauge rail connectivity and the 736 MW gas-based ONGC Tripura Power (OTPC) were planned and partly executed during this period. But the Congress didn’t claim a stake on power due to its compulsions in national politics and, the Left mopped up 85 per cent seats in the 60-member Assembly election in 2013.

BJP’s claim

The Narendra Modi government also contributed significantly to the development of Tripura.

Broad-gauge rail connectivity; alternate internet gateway; exports of OTPC power to Bangladesh; a new National Highway, rail-, road-, river- and even sea port-connectivity through Bangladesh — the Centre took rapid steps to fulfil Tripura’s wish list over the last four years.

But it had come at a political cost. First, improved connectivity and development increased public aspiration, and second, BJP staked a strong claim for power by capitalising on anti-incumbency against the Left. Tripura hasn’t witnessed political rivalry of this scale for many years. Naturally, it caught the fancy of a large section of people.

Whether BJP could garner enough support to come to power in Tripura will be known later. But, they played every card to achieve this.

Allying with the strongest, Christian, tribal force, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), and the merger of a runway group of IPFT (referred as IPFT-Tipraha) with the BJP are expected to unite Opposition votes in 20 tribal seats that traditionally voted for the Left.

To dent support for the Left in 10 constituencies dominated by the Scheduled Castes, the BJP is banking on Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath’s Gorakhnath math connection.

The SC population in Tripura is dominated by Debnath community. And many in the community owe their allegiance to the Gorakhnath math run by Nath monastic group. Adityanath campaigned in Tripura with with a battery of priests from Gorakhnath math, where he is the head priest.

Add to this the BJP’s organisational strength in two northern districts (North Tripura and Unakoti); a near-wipe of the Congress’ vote bank (as was evidenced in by-elections); and the highly-charged campaign led by seven top BJP leaders including Modi, and this election will be an uphill task for the CPI(M).

Impact on Bengal

It is widely anticipated that even if the Left returns to power, they have to face a stronger Opposition in a BJP-led coalition. But if they don’t, the impact may be felt in Bengal in 2019.

While there is no direct connection between the two States, an upset in Tripura will surely add to the discomfort of the Left in West Bengal, where the BJP is fulfilling the role of main Opposition.

The party has already gained in Bengal at the cost of CPI(M), which failed to stand up to the ruling Trinamool. A win in Tripura will boost BJP’s morale in Bengal.

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