Very severe cyclone seen building over Bay next week

A low-pressure area has formed over East-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Andaman Sea on Saturday a day after the South-West monsoon entered the region. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put it straightaway under watch for rapid intensification as a cyclone by Monday.

In a projected but eventful track of progressive intensification much like in the case of extremely severe cyclone ‘Tauktae’ in the Arabian Sea last week, the IMD sees the Bay of Bengal cyclone too losing no time to intensify two rounds as a very severe cyclone in the space of a mere 24 hours by Tuesday.

Rapid strengthening, onward movement

It will continue to move in a North-North-West track and intensify even further to emerge into the North Bay of Bengal near West Bengal by Wednesday morning. It is projected to cross the coast along an arc from Odisha in the West extending to Bangladesh in the East by the same evening, as per the IMD assessment.

Also read: Freaky weather and a mischievous track-changing cyclone

Almost the entire Bay waters likely being purveyed by the building cyclone are extremely warm with sea-surface temperatures ranging between 31-32 degrees Celsius ensuring ample supply of moisture, clouds and thunderstorms that go to make the storm tower and sustain it along the potential track.

Global models in agreement

Global models are broadly in agreement with this forecast and point out that the upper air environment also looks favourable with moderate wind shear (change in wind speed direction with height given that the monsoon has not set in over these parts) and proper ‘window effect’ at the top.

The IMD has warned that sea conditions will be ‘rough to very rough’ over the Andaman Sea and adjoining East-Central Bay today (Saturday) and Sunday; ‘high to very high’ over most of the Central and North Bay and along and off the Odisha-West Bengal-Bangladesh coasts from Monday to Wednesday.

Warning to fishermen

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea and along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands until Monday; into the Central Bay from Saturday to Monday; and into the North Bay along and off West Bengal-Odisha-Bangladesh coasts from Monday to Wednesday. Those who are out in the deep Sea are advised to return.

Also read: South-West monsoon enters parts of Bay of Bengal

Rainfall forecast for coast

Light to moderate rainfall may commence at most places over the coastal districts of the plains of West Bengal with heavy falls at isolated places from Tuesday with significant increase in spatial extension and intensity subsequently. Heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls are likely on Wednesday.

Heavy to very heavy falls may lash the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Wednesday and heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls on Thursday. As for Odisha, moderate rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places are likely over North Coastal Odisha on Wednesday and over North Odisha on Thursday.

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