Uttar Pradesh Election. Western disturbance: Polling begins in the hub of farmers protest

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rare interview where he broadcast his farm laws rollback decision the eve of the polling in the region most impacted by the farmers’ agitation kicked off the first phase in Uttar Pradesh where, with the help of the Jat-dominated Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the Samajwadi Party(SP) hopes to consolidate its challenge to the ruling BJP.

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The BJP had won 53 of the 58 seats in the first phase in the upper and middle Doab region of western UP where the dominant discourse is set by the Jat farmers who have mostly aligned with the BJP since the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013.

Farm movement for the whole of last year witnessed overwhelming Jat participation and political economy issues – unemployment, farm income, fertiliser prices – contrasting sharply with the political discourse around communal/identity issues, welfare and law and order that is the BJP’s strong point.

In terms of caste equations in the upper Doab areas including Meerut, Shamli, Badaut, Baghpat, the BJP’s support among upper castes, Gujjars, Jats and lower OBCs – Kashyaps, Pals and Sainis – the SP-RLD has pitched the Jats and Muslims and hope that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will be able to retain its support among the Jatavs who populate the ‘Brij Mandal’ comprising Mathura, Agra, Aligarh, Hathras, Bulandhehr, etc.

Jatavs are BSP chief’s Mayati’s core supporters and community brethren who form the largest chunk among the Dalit voters in UP. Against the SP’s wooing of Jats, lower OBCs and unsaid but strong support base of Muslims, the factor that Akhilesh Yadav would most fear is that a section of the Jatavs, like other Dalit communities including Khatigs and Valmikis, may shift to the BJP.

The SP-RLD combine is hoping for the BSP to retain its core vote in the Brij Mandal, so that it does not become a sweep for the BJP whereas the Opposition coalition would hope to sweep in the sugarcane belt or the upper Doab region of Muzaffarnagar, Karana, Shamli etc.

The stage for the next six phases and the momentum or ‘Hawa’ would be provided by the first two phases and in the first phase, the Opposition coalition is fighting a stiff challenge to the BJP’s formidable showing in the last Assembly and two Lok Sabha elections since 2014. The difference this time is that there is no clear ‘Hawa’ this time and on the ground, each seat seems to be getting fought on different issues and candidates’ popularity or otherwise.

Communal divisions

For instance, in Dholana assembly seat at the farthest corner of Ghaziabad, the sitting MLA Aslam Chaudhary of the BSP switched over to the SP and seemed confident of winning this time as well. There are about 1.8 lakh Muslims in Dhaulana according to Chaudhary’s calculations, along with 28,000 Jats who he was confident would support him, he should be able to get this seat.

Chaudhary, however, made a nuanced point that in the SP-RLD combine, the seats where the RLD has fielded its candidate is getting the majority of the Jat support but where the candidate belongs to SP and does not have the RLD’s election symbol of ‘Nal (tap)’, the Jat support is not quite that overwhelming. There is also slight anxiety about the BSP candidate, who too is Muslim, dividing the vote.

The communal divisions are not sharp despite a flashpoint last year when a Muslim boy was beaten up when he entered a temple premises for drinking water. The temple has a signboard that reads “yahan Mussalmanon ka pravesh varjit hai (Muslims are prohibited from entering”.

“The BJP has tried everything to disturb the communal peace here. But we have remained together. The farm movement has changed the discourse. I was the only candidate from the BSP who won in this entire region in the thick of the BJP wave in 2017. This time, the Gathbandhan (Opposition coalition) is very strong and the BSP has sold its tickets. We should be comfortably winning,” Chaudhary said.

In the adjoining seat of Garhmukteshwar, held by the BJP’s Kamal Singh Mallik, the SP-RLD’s chances have been marred by the candidate selection. The SP’s local strongman Madan Chohan, who had won from this seat three times before the BJP captured it, was denied the coalition candidature. He is now contesting on a BSP ticket and is heavily eating into the SP-RLD vote share.

“The Gathbandhan is giving a fight but our vote would go to Madan Chouhan. The SP made a mistake in denying him the ticket,” said Salim Chaudhary, an erstwhile supporter of the SP who is now backing the BSP candidate.

The polling went began this morning with mounting tensions especially in the SP-RLD camp which knows it has to capture the ‘Hawa’ in the first two phases. The BJP is buoyed by the PM’s TV coverage just before the party readies to trounce the challengers once again.

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