Will road to Delhi pass through TN again?

Three times in a row, Tamil Nadu has played a critical role in government formation in Delhi.

In 1999, the so-called grand alliance sewn up by the BJP — with the DMK, MDMK, PMK and MGR ADMK — won 26 of the State’s 39 seats, securing Atal Behari Vajpayee’s position at the Centre.

In 2004, all the 39 Tamil Nadu seats were added to the UPA’s kitty with the DMK (16), dumping the BJP for the Congress (10) and including in the alliance, PMK, MDMK, CPI(M) and CPI, which together won the other 13 seats. In 2009, Tamil Nadu was once again pivotal in seeing the UPA secure a surprise second term.

This is the first Lok Sabha election in which neither national party — the Congress and the BJP — has a major Dravidian ally.

While the Congress is fighting what looks very much like a losing battle all by itself, the BJP has managed to cobble together an alliance with Vijaykanth’s DMDK and Vaiko’s MDMK. If it manages to bring on board the PMK, which is holding out because of seat-allocation issues, it would have managed to form a third front, that is capable of winning a few seats and cutting into the votes of the two major parties in a manner that could throw up unpredictable results.

Regional issues key As always, regional issues and sentiments will play a major role in the elections in Tamil Nadu. The Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK, which has been in power in the State since 2011, fancies its chances in this election, a confidence reflected in its imperious take-it-or-leave-it seat offer to the CPI and the CPM. The two parties, which were offered an embarrassing one seat each, were forced to fight on their own.

Jayalalithaa’s theme revolves around strengthening her hand to play a decisive role at the Centre.

The AIADMK government has not done anything radically wrong over the past couple of years. The CM has played the populist card on everything from the Sri Lankan Tamils issue, the plight of Tamil fishermen at the hands of the Sri Lankan navy, and the release of the convicts who had assassinated Rajiv Gandhi. She is also banking on the sops she has handed out — starting with her popular Amma canteens that sell cheap food — and the deep division in the DMK, to secure a victory.

An angry Alagiri The suspension of M Karunanidhi’s son MK Alagiri, the DMK’s strongman in the southern districts, and the sidelining of his supporters, has caused an undeniable rift in the party. With Alagiri in a rebellious mood, it remains to be seen how much this will impact the DMK in the southern districts.

The DMK, which blew hot and cold towards the BJP, has ended up with three smaller allies in its fold. It has pointedly fielded A Raja and Dayanidhi Maran, against whom there are corruption charges, to reiterate the point that the two former ministers in the UPA government were falsely implicated.

Riding on its alliance, the BJP, which is contesting eight seats, will look to win at least a few of them.

The party, which could secure a mere 2.2 per cent of the total Tamil Nadu vote in the 2011 Assembly election, is hoping to radically improve it, thanks to the Modi factor, which is more than possible according to some opinion polls.

The tie-up with the DMDK, which won 10.9 per cent of the vote in the 2009 Lok Sabha election and which emerged as the second largest party in the 2011 Assembly poll, is an additional booster.

It is hoping that the troubles with the PMK will be sorted out and that the alliance can pose a real challenge in some seats, particularly those in the State’s northern regions.

Post-poll possibilities The absence of a major Dravidian ally does not preclude a marriage of convenience post-election.

Jayalalithaa has a strong personal rapport with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, and may well be prepared to support him in the event that there is no Third Front alternative. The DMK, despite its sporadic professions of secularism, seemed willing to play ball with the BJP until recently; significantly, its leader Karunanidhi has described the Gujarat CM as a ‘good man’.

In short, the absence of a national alliance may not change anything with respect to government formation in Delhi. The next one may well depend on a block of Tamil Nadu MPs, of one Dravidian party or the other, to secure its hands on power.

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