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The monsoon would continue its active session over most parts of the country until July 11, with further increase in rainfall during the week as on date (July 5 to 11).
This is despite a slight weakening of the rain-driving Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, an extended outlook of the India Met Department (IMD) said.
June contribution
In its second long-range forecast issued on May 30, the IMD had estimated that rainfall for July would be 101 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) though it didn't give an estimate for June. However, June is considered the least productive of the four monsoon months contributing 17 per cent of the total rainfall. July generates 32 per cent, August 28 per cent and September 23 per cent.
Rainfall during July and August are considered the most crucial for the concurrent kharif crop since these months coincide with the vulnerable early and mid-growth phases.
As for June, the rainfall deficit from two intervening weak phases has been brought down to 10 per cent during June 1 to 27, with the monsoon reviving from June 20. This revival phase has continues to date, and is likely to hold until July 11, as per the latest IMD outlook. This period would witness the monsoon cover the entire country ahead of the normal July-15 timeline.
North-West India, where the monsoon was delayed by more than a week, has worked up a deficit of 20 per cent as on June 27. The deficit might get mitigated due to the ongoing rains in the region.
Regional deficit
Central India, some parts of which too witnessed an extended dry phase, has a manageable deficit of six per cent. The South Peninsula continues its surplus run with excess rainfall of 17 per cent.
East and North-East India has returned a deficit of 26 per cent, though the fact remains that any negative deviation over the region gets amplified due to the traditionally high rainfall normals.
Meanwhile, the overall trend in rainfall during the ongoing week (June 28 to July 4) based on the existing and emerging atmospheric and meteorological features as divined by the IMD is as follows:
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall along the West Coast; the North-Eastern States; hills of Bengal and Sikkim; Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during the first half of week. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over the remaining parts of the country outside Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu, where light isolated rainfall activity is likely.
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