The next two months will witness as many as 300 crore Omicron cases across the globe but the infection-fatality rate will be lower than the Delta wave by around 97-99 per cent, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research centre at the University of Washington said Thursday.

Peak in mid-January

The forecast of 300 crore infections is as many infections as was seen in the first two years of the Covid pandemic, the report said. It added that peak transmission should be in mid-January with over 35 million global infections a day, nearly three times the Delta wave peak in April. However, the infection-hospitalisation rate is also likely to be 90-96 per cent lower than for Delta, the report added.

Safety measure necessary

“Increasing mask use to 80 per cent will have a huge effect on cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. More rapid and extensive delivery of third doses of vaccine will also reduce the burden of hospitalisation and death. The unvaccinated and never infected are at a greatest risk. Vaccination for the unvaccinated is a powerful way to reduce personal risk,” it stated.

“Comparing the Omicron variant with the Delta variant IHME research says that the Omicron is more transmissible and with 40-60 per cent immune escape combined to lead to rapid increases in reported case counts. A much larger fraction of infections is symptomatic – likely up from 40 per cent for Delta and prior variants to 90-95 per cent for Omicron,” the report said.

Unknown severity

Going forward, as per IHME, tracking hospitalisations will be a more relevant measure for local action than case counts. As there is huge uncertainty particularly about the severity of Omicron which has a critical impact on the forecasts of hospitalization and death, more data in the next 3-4 weeks may change the scenario, it said.

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