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The onset of the southwest monsoon, which accounts for 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, is likely to be on May 30, according to a statement released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) here on Thursday.
The forecast has a model error of four days either way and over the past nine years, data suggests that the IMD has not incorrectly predicted the onset date outside of this range.
“The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of ± 4 days…it signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents beginning of the rainy season over the region,” said the statement.
Forecasts for the date of the monsoon onset over the State taking six predictors into account have been provided since 2005.
These include: the minimum temperature over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the southern peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and OLR over southwest Pacific region.
The IMD also noted that the advance of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea, which normally takes place around May 20 with a deviation of a week, had resulted in increased rainfall in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
“The cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen and deepen over the area. As such, conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and adjoining sea areas during the next three-four days,” the statement added.
The Met Department had told reporters last month that the four-month long southwest monsoon will likely be below normal at 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of rainfall between 1951 and 2000 with a model error of five per cent either way. The LPA is estimated at 89 cm.
If the prediction turns out to be correct, it would mark the second consecutive season of a below-normal monsoon. In 2014, rainfall was 12 per cent below normal and adversely affected the Kharif season with foodgrain output shorter by nearly 9 million tonnes (mt).
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