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India Met Department (IMD) has maintained its watch for a low-pressure area in the North Bay of Bengal over the next two days but global models are increasingly unsure about the prospects.
This is despite the passage of a friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over the Indian Ocean, which is known to help with the formation of 'low's and depressions under its footprint.
US agency forecast
The US Climate Prediction Centre said in an update that the MJO wave would pass over the Indian Ocean during the ongoing week ((October 4 to 10) and would 'favourably' affect weather over India.
Although development of a tropical cyclone is not expected in the Bay of Bengal, an area of low-pressure is forecast to track from the North Bay and enter East-Central or North-East India.
This is likely to leave a trail of above-average rainfall along its path, a forecast about which there is high confidence, the US agency said in the update.
But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts did not see any major development except for emergence of helpful troughs along both the East and West coasts of India.
The European centre was more optimistic about the development of a weather system in the East-Central Arabian Sea, off the North Kerala and adjoining Karnataka coasts.
Rain spells, high winds
A weather tracker employed by the US agency supported the case of a 'low' in the Bay touching off activity across Central India into the Arabian Sea off Konkan-Goa.
In any case, the presence of troughs along the coasts would bring spells of rain for North-East, East-Central and Peninsular India during the weekend and into next week, these forecasts said.
In its outlook valid for today, IMD said that heavy rain is likely at isolated places over Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka.
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning have been warned of at isolated places over East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic Bengal and Odisha. Thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds are forecast for Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and the North-Eastern States.
As for tomorrow, IMD expected heavy rain to lash isolated places in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, North Interior Karnataka and the North-Eastern States.
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