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The hurricane season that is set to start in the Atlantic on June 1 is expected to be “active or extremely active,” the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday.
There is a 70-per-cent chance of having 13 to 20 named storms, seven to 11 hurricanes, defined as storms with wind speeds of at least 120 km per hour, and three to six hurricanes of category three or higher on the five-tier Saffir-Simpson scale, with wind speeds of at least 180 km per hour.
“With the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving forecasts,” the body’s acting administrator Kathryn Sullivan told a press conference at College Park, Maryland.
Sandy was last year’s most destructive hurricane. It reached category three but hit the US coast as category two. It was particularly devastating in the north-eastern US state of New Jersey, and it is believed to have killed 285 people in its passage over seven countries.
“As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline,” Sullivan said.
The expectation of an active upcoming season rests on two factors: a strong monsoon in western Africa and higher-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and in the Caribbean.
“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, hurricane forecaster at the NOAA.
The forecast does not, however, say whether these storms and hurricanes will make landfall, since that can only be established based on each storm’s bearing.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November, inclusive, with August and September the most active months.
The NOAA said it will have a new supercomputer in place in July that will improve storm description and structure, and hence its forecasts.
The NOAA is set to issue next week its storm preparedness tips.
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