There are no easy ways to deal with President Donald Trump. And the worst mistake a country could do is to fall into the trap of satisfying itself on occasional praises. There have been multiple occasions when the 47th President has spoken highly of India and of its Prime Minister; but there have been times when New Delhi has been seen as one of the “worst” on tariffs and on the receiving end of the reciprocal measures threat.

It would not seem to matter if India is on the list of the “Dirty 15” or the top 15 per cent of the targeted nations on tariffs. One argument is that talks are going on well between the two sides on a bilateral framework or in a “deal” that will be beneficial to both sides. But on the other hand, India will always be on the radar of President Trump that may have little to do with bilateral issues. And this has to do with the President threatening additional tariffs on countries that do not fall in line with his other foreign policy objectives.

Take the latest development, for instance: Trump is supposedly peeved with his Russian counterpart, Valdimir Putin, on his refusal to come to terms with a ceasefire “deal” over the war in the Ukraine. Aside from threatening Moscow with additional sanctions, President Trump has targeted his ire also on countries doing business with Putin. And Russia is not the only one that is at the receiving end — Iran as well for its “refusal” to come to a deal on the nuclear issue. And for Teheran, it goes beyond any talk of sanctions: bombing or full scale war.

Secondary effects

India may not be on Trump’s primary radar all the time, but it cannot avoid being dragged into the secondary front on account of Washington’s dealings with other countries. On Venezuela, Trump recently threatened tariffs on countries importing oil from Caracas. Now the American President is threatening countries like India with additional tariffs of 25-50 per cent when sanctions come into effect for importing oil from Russia.

The top two oil importers of Russian crude are China with about 50 per cent and India at around 37 per cent followed by the European Union and Turkey. Since the time of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Moscow has faced the brunt of American punitive measures against its crude and oil product exports; and New Delhi has been occasionally flogged for allegedly trying to circumvent sanctions by being a backdoor conduit, conveniently forgetting Europe’s role in filling Putin’s coffers.

But in the last three years, Russian oil exports have declined due to a number of reasons — attacks on refineries; dwindling availability of tankers and discounts hitting revenues. The threat of secondary penalties could also hit banks dealing with Russia as they could be barred from the global banking system. The switch in payments from dollars to rouble does not mean that financial institutions are off the hook. And handing out the bait of buying American oil may not be all that simple given the cost of factoring in logistics.

For now purchase of Iranian oil by India may not attract much attention as it is either down to a trickle, or fully shut off. At one time Iran was the third largest supplier of crude oil and India subsequently leaned on Iraq and Saudi Arabia to make up for the shortfall . But there are other interests that could be a risk should President Trump escalate verbal threats into hostile military actions. India has a critical interest in developing the Chabahar port within the framework of the International North-South Transport Corridor with a view to reducing transit time and cost in the flow of goods in Central Asia, Russia and Europe. For now policymakers in New Delhi would seem to have a full plate in dealing with the Trump administration.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations

Published on March 31, 2025