Recent history has not been kind to politicians who called for a mid-term poll or a referendum on their policies. Just look at the examples of Prime Minister Theresa May or her predecessor David Cameron in the UK.

While Theresa gambled on calling the election a year ahead in the hope of securing a bigger majority, Cameron called for a referendum on Brexit and then had to exit himself when the nation voted in favour of moving out.

Both came in for heavy criticism for misreading the signals and ending up weakening their party and their own leadership.

The risks are many. Given this background, is there a possibility of an early poll in India?

Yes, there is — the polls may come next year , a full year ahead of schedule. The Bharatiya Janata Party is undoubtedly in pole position right now even as the Opposition is in disarray.

Recent opinion polls place the party in a strong enough position to come back on its own strength.

The single biggest factor that may prompt an early poll is the possibility that the economy may worsen in the next two years. The jobs situation remains bad. The masses thought that achhe din would come quickly. Well, the bad news will have to be broken to them — it may come only in the ... err ... third term!

Two reform measures — demonetisation and GST — are gambles that will, going by global experience, take a minimum of two years to pay off. That may be far too late for the electorate which is now driven by high expectations and the need for quick results.

The best window for the BJP is, therefore, within the next six months. Incidentally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bestie Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also just decided to call for snap polls in Japan, a year ahead of schedule.

Why look elsewhere for inspiration?

Associate Editor

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