Gnanasekaar T

Palm oil futures to correct lower, then move higher

Gnanasekaar T | Updated on January 19, 2018 Published on January 11, 2016

Palm Oil



Malaysian palm oil futures on BMD ended sharply lower Monday, despite supportive government data, weighed down by plunging crude oil prices and volatile global financial markets. Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, which was released after the market paused for the midday break, showed a 1.1 per cent fall in December exports. Palm oil inventories in Malaysia dropped to, its lowest level since February 2015, as the dry weather effects of the El Nino kicked in.

CPO active month March futures moved perfectly in line with our expectations.

As mentioned earlier, more declines towards 2,405 MYR/tonne followed by 2,385 levels look likely. As of now some support is noticed around 2,375-85 levels. Failure to find support here could accelerate the decline even further.

Though the decline could continue further, the trend still remains bullish and our favoured view expects support levels at 2,385 followed by 2,360-65 could still hold and prices could once again attempt to rise higher. Only an unexpected decline below 2,340 could hint that the expected rise above 2,500-10 might not materialise.

Such a decline could open the downside again targeting 2,300-20 levels or even lower. Favoured view expects a corrective decline to supports mentioned above and then prices to rise higher again.

We will now reassess the wave counts, as prices have crossed over above 2,370-2,400 . A possible new impulse looks to have started again. One of our targets at 1,850 was met. The rally from there looks very impressive. The current move could push higher towards 2,645 initially and then it could correct lower in a corrective pattern towards 2,310 or even lower to 2,250 , and then subsequently rise towards a medium to long-term target at 2,900 , which could bring this current impulse to an end. But, this is clearly a medium to long-term expectation and not to be mistaken for a short-term view. Any dips could prove to be opportunity to participate in the upcoming uptrend. RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold.

As mentioned in the earlier update, the averages in MACD are above the zero line of the indicator hinting a bullish trend to be intact. Only a crossover again below the zero line could hint at a reversal in trend to bearish.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to correct lower initially and then move higher again.

Supports are at MYR 2,375, 2,345 & 2,305 Resistances are at MYR 2,455, 2,495 & 2,510.

The writer is the Director of Commtrendz Research.There is risk of loss in trading.

Published on January 11, 2016

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