Are the winds of change beginning to blow?

As we await the results of polls in five States, one wonders if the Indian electorate has anything to celebrate. Given the rising unemployment, acute farm distress, rising fuel prices does it matter at all for the aam aadmi which party comes to power?

Anti incumbency indeed plays a big role in Indian elections. Rajasthan, one of the States that went to the polls last week, has over the years swung from the BJP to the Congress and vice versa, and if the conflicting and confusing exit polls are certain about one factor, it is the Congress taking over the State once again. However, both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have bucked anti-incumbency for 15 long years, with both remaining BJP bastions. Thanks to the infighting in the Congress ranks and the shenanigans of senior leaders such as Digijaya Singh and Kamal Nath, this heartland of India has gone the BJP way in the last three elections, as also did Chhattisgarh where Ajit Jogi did immense harm to the Congress.

The 2014 General Elections certainly belonged to the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi who managed to light a spark in the minds of the Indian electorate, specially the young, with his promises of change, massive generation of jobs, a boost to the agri sector and above all, a corruption-free reign. Four years down the line, job aspirants were thrown a challenge by BJP President Amit Shah — if you can’t get jobs, you can make and sell pakodas !

As for the boost promised to the agri sector, Sanjay Sathe, a Nashik farmer, made a poignant statement last week by donating ₹1,064 which he got for his produce of 750 kg onions to the PM’s Disaster Relief Fund. And he was one of the “progressive” farmers who had been chosen to interact with former US President Barack Obama during his India visit.

Big talk, small results

As the 2019 elections approach, for which these five Assembly elections are being seen as a semi-final, one thing is clear. The BJP and its leaders are great at making tall promises, but poor at delivering results. And blaming the Nehru-Gandhi family for all the ills and shortcomings of India has now become a farce, attracting numerous jokes and memes on social media. Even BJP supporters are using adjectives ranging from ‘disastrous’ to ‘disappointing’ while describing the performance of the Modi government. The charges of undue favour shown to a single corporate group in the Rafale deal are sticking and have flown in the face of BJP claims of this being a scam-free government.

Instead of seeing progress and development and generation of jobs as promised, the country has witnessed horror stories of mob lynching by go-rakshaks (cow vigilantes) running amok, people being berated for eating beef. Barely a week ago a police inspector was shot dead in mob violence in Bulandshar in UP, where the carcasses of some cows were found. He was on duty trying to control the mob violence that followed the discovery of the carcasses of cows.

Shamefully, spokespersons of the UP government reiterated that their top priority was to find those who killed the cows, rather than those who killed the inspector. The saffron-clad CM of Uttar Pradesh hardly inspires any confidence by his talk or action.

Resurrection of Congress

In the background of such disturbing incidents and economic distress, be it in the farm sector or the SME sector (still reeling in the aftermath of demonetisation and GST), what the BJP has successfully managed to do is provide a breather to the Congress which was decimated in the 2014 polls.

The saffron outfits’ attempt to whip up a frenzy over the Ram mandir on the eve of 2019 elections is a sign of desperation. If reports from the ground and the exit polls are to be believed, Congress is set to return to power in Rajasthan with a good margin, and has a shy at power in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Juxtapose this against the Congress not managing to get a single Lok Sabha seat out of 25 in Rajasthan in 2014.

For a State to swing this drastically — from zero Lok Sabha seats — to a convincing victory, if it materialises, in a span of just four years, reveals the level of disenchantment with the BJP.

However proud we may be of our democracy, change in governments has seldom meant change for the common man. But if any change halts the destruction of our liberal and secular ethos, it would be a beginning.

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