When negative campaigns win

The British people’s decision to quit the European Union by a 52:48 per cent vote, which sent shivers down the equity and financial markets of the world, has been analysed threadbare.

The voting pattern analysed by The Guardian is interesting. One, it appears that the more educated voted for Remain and those without college degrees, for Leave. Two, the older and poorer tended to vote for Leave, the younger and richer for Remain.

Three, the more urban and rich areas such as London voted for Remain. Even within London, Remain sentiments were strong in the capital region, with the majority in the East London working class neighbourhoods opting for Leave.

Of course, along with London, Scotland and Northern Ireland opted for Remain, and now Scotland will most likely revisit being part of the UK as it wants to remain in the EU fold. And Northern Ireland is likely to root for Ireland, which is a part of the EU.

But there are more complex issues involved in the British decision to go back to being an ‘island’. And this is the scary part, as well as a reminder to governments around the world that federal or London-based political systems, often seen to be favouring the rich and discriminating against the working and lower middle classes, are dangerous. Of course, our politicians have mastered the art of propagating at least the notion that it cares for the poorer sections and hence the plethora of debt waivers, MNREGS, rozgar programmes, housing and other schemes for the rural poor.

The scary part of Brexit was the racist hysteria, which mirrors what is happening in many other European countries related to immigrants ‘stealing’ the jobs of the natives, and eating into their national welfare kitty. Even though most of the immigrants to the UK come from outside the EU (and these are qualified, skilled people), the Leave side stirred up hatred for the free movement of workers within the EU, which is actually one of its founding principles.

The rhetoric was, of course, directed at the thousands of immigrants from Eastern Europe who have come into the UK, particularly after the demolition of the Berlin wall. While it was easy for the Leave group to put the blame for the ordinary Briton’s economic woes on immigrants taking their jobs, what about the jobs that will now move out of the UK?

Negative campaigns have always seen rich dividends; we’ve seen that in India over the last few decades. Whip up fear and hysteria among the people and reap a rich harvest of votes,. The Brexit decision will reverberate across Europe.

The first to react is France: traumatised by the recent terrorist attacks, voices across France are rising for a Frexit referendum, and Germans bitterly opposed to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ‘welcome migrants’ policy are also seeking such a vote.

Predictably, the EU reacted haughtily to the British decision. Responding to the two-year exit strategy, a miffed European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, called for immediate talks and a quicker exit, prompting Merkel to chide him that there was no need to be “nasty” to Britain!

In the coming months it will be interesting to watch how this drama plays out, but for the many Indian companies, beginning with the Tata group, which have large investments in the UK, this will be a nightmarish phase. As for the UK, which might soon be reduced to England notwithstanding the remote hamlets/colonies it still controls in South America and elsewhere. The first economic impact will be the question mark on London remaining the financial capital of the world.

The pound has crashed; JP Morgan is moving 4,000 jobs out; Morgan Stanley has started moving 2,000 of its executives to Dublin and Frankfurt; and HSBC, about 1,000 of its employees to its Paris facility. Further exodus is on the cards.

But most significant is political pundits warning Americans not to take their November elections lightly… the needle pointing, of course, to the politics of hate being practised by Donald Trump.

COMMENT NOW