Congress on backfoot in AP

Politics and films are a staple for the people of Andhra Pradesh. There is hardly a dull moment in State politics or in Tollywood. Ever since NTR, the superstar, rode to power in 1983, dethroning the Congress, AP has been playing a key role in the survival of the Governments at the Centre.

N.T. Rama Rao emerged as the rallying point for the opposition during Rajiv Gandhi's rule, while his son-in-law and Telugu Desam Chief, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu, was called the kingmaker during the United Front and BJP-led NDA rule. Next followed Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, who contributed to the biggest chunk of Congress MPs to support the Dr Manmohan Singh Government.

In films, Telugu cinema has established itself assecond only to Bollywood in terms of movies made annually. The budgets have grown bigger, the number of screens multiplied, though traditional cinema houses have declined. Tollywood is a big draw for heroines from the North.

Growth story hit

Of late, business and crime have got entwined with politics and cinema. In films, it translates into big bucks for the producers and stars. In politics, in means longevity in power and riches to politicians.

During the period 1996-2009, Andhra Pradesh was perceived as among the most happening States. Political stability and economic growth showed the way. But in the last couple of years, something has gone amiss. There is a crisis in political as well as economic development.

The growth story is not in a state of pause or slowing down, but hurtling back, say political and economic observers.

Historically, by-elections were conducted on two counts — resignation or death of a sitting legislator. Most often, the opposition party won the ensuing elections.

However, there has been a sea change in trend. With the sympathy factor riding high, invariably the candidate wins back, because he/she has quit on some issue, or is the wife/husband or son as the case may be.

Since 2009, the State has been pushed into repeated by-elections, mainly due to the Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) legislators quitting individually or the entire party at once. A few times, Congress legislators also resigned in support of Telangana.

According to the Speaker of the AP Legislative Assembly, Mr Nadendla Manohar, the State has seen 66 by-elections since 2006. With the exception of one or two cases, in all such elections, the resigned candidate has retained his seat, or in case of death, the blood relation wins.

It is in this background that the June 12 by-elections to 18 assembly constituencies and one Parliament need to be seen. The big difference, of course, is that it is an acid test for both Mr Y.S Jaganmohan Reddy's political future as well as a pointer to the fortunes of the ruling Congress Government, come 2014. The elections have been brought about by the resignation of MLAs loyal to Mr Jagan, who heads the YSR Congress Party.

Politics and business

The coming by-elections are being viewed in some quarters as a semi-final to the scheduled 2014 elections to the 294-member Andhra Pradesh Assembly. The focus is on the ability of the ruling dispensation to halt Mr Jagan in his tracks and the latter's claimed strength of loyalists in the Congress.

Mr Jagan is currently lodged in Chenchalguda facing a barrage of corruption charges. This curtails his contact with voters. The ruling Congress, led by Mr Kiran Kumar Reddy, is faced with a tough task of targeting Mr Jagan's alleged disproportionate assets, while delicately conceding YSR's popularity as a result of these schemes.

Mr Jagan has followed his father's footsteps in reaching out to voters through his ‘Odarpu Yatra', consoling families that lost a member following the death of YSR in 2009. If the 15,000-km walk undertaken by YSR before the 2004 election helped him connect with people and win their confidence,

Mr Jagan, too, is pinning his hopes on his mass contact programme, eulogising his father's pet schemes, such as ‘Arogyasri' (free health), free education to poor, Indiramma housing and employment through Jalayagnam (irrigation projects), NREGA schemes.

The Congress is in an unenviable position. It is being pulled in different directions by , internal squabbling, the challenge from TRS for separate statehood for Telangana, and the threat from Jagan to wean away YSR loyalists.

In a way, the CBI enquiry ordered by the State High Court into Mr Jagan's assets should have come as a blessing, helping it to minimise the clout of Mr Jagan.

Challenge to Cong

However, the arrest of Mr Jagan on May 27, a day before his expected appearance in the CBI court as per directions, has thrown up a fresh and bigger challenge to Congress leaders .

Alleging conspiracy, Ms Vijayamma, mother of Mr Jagan and MLA, along with his wife (Bharati) and sister (Sharmila), has hit the campaign trial.

The huge crowds at their meetings clearly indicate that they could ride a sympathy wave. In contrast, a star-studded campaign led by the Chief Minister, Mr Kiran Kumar, megastar Chiranjeevi, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad (AP in-charge) and PCC President, Mr Botsa Satyanarayana, is attracting a moderate to lukewarm response.

In jail, under judicial remand till June 11 (campaigning ends on June 10), a day before the elections, Mr Jagan is facing a battery of investigators from the CBI to the Enforcement Directorate. Likely to feel the heat are also several corporate honchos, bureaucrats, politicians who are reportedly associated with him.

Political pundits predict an easy win for YSR Congress in most of the assembly seats. Of academic interest is whether the Congress can convert anti-Jagan moves into wresting a few seats.

The realists within the party feel it would be an achievement if the leadership could stem desertions (two MLAs have already quit) and more importantly after the results come in and prevent a crisis of numbers.

The Telugu Desam, on the other hand, is making a spirited attempt with campaigning by its chief, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu, on the field, and to an extent, his brother-in-law and filmstar, Balakrishna, through his film Adhinayakudu (leader), taking swipes at Mr Jagan and YSR.

The TRS, the Left parties, BJP are all marginal players in this essentially Congress problem that has been inflicted on the State's electorate.

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