Thanksgiving in America may be some three weeks away, but the Biden administration is looking at something constructive to take place on or before November 17 — the day House Republicans and Democrats would have to agree on a new debt ceiling limit failing which the Federal government would face a shutdown. And first indications from the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, are not too optimistic. The 2020 election denier and a staunch Trump supporter, Mike Johnson has given every indication that he is not about to waver on his agenda.

President Joe Biden’s big win came at the start of the week with the United Automobile Workers formally ended the impasse with the Big Three of Detroit as General Motors, Ford and Stellantis agreed to major concessions. Biden had put in his lot with the striking workers knowing full well that his political fate of 2024 rested to a large extent on swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. And Stellantis has also agreed to open its assembly plant in Illinois and General Motors bringing an electric vehicle manufacturing facility under national contract.

Unionised workers seem content with the new agreed contracts which in some cases would mean additional wages of up to $8 over a period of four-and-a-half years. But this also sets the stage for a showdown between the UAW and non-unionised automakers like Tesla and other Asian and European manufacturers. But for a start the general impression in industry circles is that President Biden had to gain from unionised workers and is waiting to make inroads into the other sector. “This historic contract is a testament to the power of unions and collective bargaining to build strong middle-class jobs while helping our most iconic American companies thrive,” Biden said.

Political lift

The so-called political lift to Biden is coming at a time when opinion polls are showing alarming trends to Democrats and the White House. The disapproval rating for the sitting President is a whopping 56 per cent. Party-wise, 85 per cent of Democrats and only 10 per cent of Republicans approve of Biden. Sixty-one per cent of African-Americans were in favour of Biden when compared to 55 per cent of Hispanic and Asian-American voters. And the biggest worry: only 42 per cent of white voters approved the way President Biden is doing his job.

The downward spiral in Biden’s approval rating has to be seen in the context of a general feeling within Democrats that the party would be better off in 2024 if the current incumbent was not on the ticket, with close to 70 per cent citing age as the factor. Leaving this apart, there is general uneasiness in the political spectrum of the return of Donald Trump with 2024 being a re-run of the 2020 showdown. Trump’s popularity is getting stronger within the Republican Party with his political opponents not even coming anywhere close to the popularity the former President as seen poll after poll.

But between now and November 17, Democrats will really have to wonder if their strategy of joining Republicans and forcing Kevin McCarthy out of Speakership was indeed a wise one. The new Speaker Mike Johnson has signalled his first confrontation with the White House saying that he will be pushing for a standalone emergency funding for Israel of $14.5 billion instead of going along with the administration package of $106 billion, about 60 per cent of which had been earmarked for Ukraine. Johnson says that he is not opposed to assisting Ukraine, only that he wants conditions attached.

Even in the context of aid to Israel, Johnson has maintained that this money would come from cuts in the spending for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), an idea that has already been dubbed a non- starter. The new proposal will falter in the Senate where the Democrats have a razor thin majority. Some senior Republicans like minority leader Mitch McConnell in the Senate do not favour an aid package leaving out Ukraine.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations

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