Election signals

There are many signals in the results of the Assembly elections to four major States, but foremost amongst them is a strong sense of disenchantment with the Congress party. Although these were State elections, with many local factors at play, the Congress seemed to have reaped voter ire for its perceived maladministration at the Centre. The party has been crushed in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi and has failed to dislodge the BJP in Chhattisgarh. The losses in Rajasthan and Delhi are particularly significant, being States where the Congress governments weren’t exactly complete non-performers. The results show the extent of dissatisfaction with the Congress at the Centre.

The BJP has reasons to be happy, but its euphoria has been tempered by its performances in Delhi, where it fell short of a majority, and Chhattisgarh, where the contest was closer than it would have liked. While it may have emerged as the biggest party in the former and the outright winner in the latter, the BJP was expecting to ride on the popularity of the party’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, to win decisively in all four States – an expectation that was reinforced by some opinion and exit polls. An emphatic 4-0 victory may have lent credibility to talk of a huge ‘Modi wave’. But this result at best suggests the presence of a strong ripple – one that clearly carried to Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, creating a sizeable swing in favour of the BJP. Past elections to these States have shown that it is mistaken to extrapolate the results on the general election, a few months away. While the BJP’s good showing will provide it the momentum for the Lok Sabha election, it still by no means clear whether the party will be able perform well in the two States that hold the key to its political fortunes: Uttar Pradesh, where it is up against three rivals, and Bihar, where it has lost a powerful ally.

The party that created a real wave this time is Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, which won 28 seats and a third of Delhi’s vote share. It was responsible for reducing the Congress tally to single digits and denying the BJP a clean sweep. The AAP’s performance signals a larger dissatisfaction – one that extends beyond the Congress. It is a disenchantment with mainstream politics and a rejection of the venality of our political culture. While it is arguably still largely an urban middle class and lower middle class phenomenon, the AAP has struck a chord among the lower income strata. Whether and how effectively this fledgling outfit can repeat its success at the national level remains to be seen. But there is a message in its performance that members of the political class, whatever their ideology and orientation, should ignore only at their own peril.

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