The impact of a patchy north-east monsoon on rabi crop prospects may require some attention, before government machinery gets into election mode later this year. As reported by this newspaper, the reservoir levels in the southern States as well as sowing data for rabi crops do indicate a decline in output in the case of rabi rice, groundnut and pulses, principally gram.

It is, however, true that the principal rabi crops, wheat and mustard, are grown in the northern States where the reservoir and groundwater levels are comfortable. Even though mustard area is up just 1.7 per cent this season and wheat acreage is down 1.2 per cent, there is no real cause for concern there. Besides, price rise may be contained in view of liberalised imports of edible oils and pulses and export bans on wheat and non-basmati rice — even as such steps are ill-advised. But the impact of lower output of paddy, groundnut and pulses on rural demand in the peninsular States in particular cannot be overlooked when the economy is moving into higher gear.

The latest IMD’s assessment of the north east monsoon shows that interior Tamil Nadu, and most of interior Karnataka have received deficient rain in December, even as the southern peninsula shows 126 per cent excess over normal levels owing to concentrated rain in a few pockets. These States were rain-deficient in the kharif period as well, impacting pulses output in particular. There has been a 7 per cent drop in acreage in pulses from 153 lakh hectares to 142 lakh hectares this rabi. Sowing of winter paddy is down 13.3 per cent from 16.5 lakh hectare in FY23 to 14.4 lakh hectare. This could lead to an overall paddy output drop of about four million tonnes compared to FY23’s 135 million tonnes. Groundnut is under stress in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, owing to deficit rainfall in some parts and excess in others. A 3.3 per cent drop in kharif acreage under groundnut to 43.8 lakh hectares from 45.3 lakh hectares in FY23 is likely to be followed up by another one lakh hectare drop in acreage in rabi groundnut to 3.3 lakh hectare.

In managing farm output stress, a couple of medium-term policy issues should not be forgotten. First, any small dip in a macro sense in paddy output should not be cause for undue concern when governments, Centre and States, are trying to move away from paddy in dryland regions. Second, knee- jerk export bans or sudden opening up of imports impact farm sentiment and medium-term output. Pulses imports are likely to touch three million tonnes in FY24, 31 per cent over last year. The government must shift towards effective market intervention operations, as such knee-jerk steps can reverse medium term efforts to improve crop acreage, especially in the case of pulses and oilseeds. India’s policymakers have a tendency to bluntly lean against farmers in a situation of output shortfall. This should be checked.

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