Ominous signs

In his address to chief ministers of the north-eastern States on Tuesday, the Prime Minister rightly said that a third wave may soon descend upon us if the people continued to throng tourist spots and markets — without observing Covid protocols. The number of active cases in India has once again started rising after July 6 — with the north-eastern States reporting a high number of cases in May and June, despite the ebbing of the tide elsewhere. Now, the cases in Kerala and Maharashtra are creeping up as well. The Indian Medical Association has warned that a third wave is “inevitable and imminent”. Kerala added a staggering 12,220 Covid-19 cases to its daily count on Monday while Maharashtra had 8,535 new cases. The test positivity ratio, the proportion of samples tested that returned positive for Covid-19, is ruling at above 10 per cent in a number of districts in Kerala, while Maharashtra’s rate is at about 4.5 per cent. According to researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, the ‘R-value’ of Covid, which denotes the speed of spread, has once again begun to rise this month. While the States feel compelled to activate the economy, they should do so with an eye on the positivity rate, vaccinations and the levels of testing. A lowering of guard in February had cost the country dear. A similar upturn in the R value at that time turned into the second wave.

Sadly, India’s people and the authorities are repeating their mistakes. As for the latter, the complacency is evident not just in the reduced pace of vaccination but also in the fewer tests being conducted in most States, barring Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where daily testing is higher than in the same period last month. In Maharashtra, the seven-day average of daily tests being done now is 24 per cent lower than the number of tests conducted on May 6. Similarly, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal also witnessed a decline of 22 per cent, 20 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, in the same period. After mid-June when the vaccination drive had picked up to over 80 lakh jabs a day, the pace has now slowed down to a low 29.07 lakh daily doses on average with a number of States reporting shortage of stocks.

Above all, super-spreader events must be discouraged, with the festival season around the corner. Undeterred by the Kumbh fiasco, the Uttar Pradesh government has, from July 25, allowed the “Kanwar Yatra”. Devotees walk hundreds of kilometres to fetch gangajal from Haridwar, Gaumukh and Gangotri, which is then offered to Lord Shiva in different shrines. The IMA has already warned that “opening up these rituals and enabling people without vaccination to go scot-free in these mass gatherings are potential super spreaders for the Covid third wave”. It is time to be on high alert yet again.

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