Straws in the wind

The results of the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan affirm a trend that had set in with the Gujarat elections a year ago: that the BJP is having to sweat it out to defend its bastions. Like Gujarat, middle India has been the party’s traditional strength. But since 2017, the issue of rural and small industry distress, attributed to demonetisation and later GST, has cut into the BJP’s political fortunes. Rural distress and joblessness were the key issues in the current elections, and that did not help the BJP at all, with prices of onions, garlic and other crops in free fall in precisely these States. Political economy issues are likely to set the tone for the 2019 general elections as well, and here the BJP looks positively out of its comfort zone. The Ram mandir ‘movement’ has not gained traction this time round. It is a matter of debate whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for all his charisma and ability to connect with the masses, can continue to win elections single-handedly for the party. Unlike in 2014, he cannot forever position himself as the crusading outsider, or the disadvantaged subaltern, trying to reform the system. He enjoys remarkable personal credibility, but even that cannot remain untouched by governance lapses and non-delivery on ambitious promises on jobs and farm incomes. The BJP, besides posing as an alternative to the grand old party that can offer clean and efficient government, has traditionally been a party that relies on an emotive meta-narrative to win elections. That had started to dissipate in Gujarat — save some outbursts of frenetic nationalism in the final lap of campaigning. The culture-identity meta-narrative may not work everywhere, all the time. It remains to be seen whether ‘crony capitalism’ — a theme being deployed by both sides — really cuts ice.

However, all is not won for the Congress or lost for the BJP. The latter has the organisational machinery and sheer resolve to claw back from adverse situations. On the other hand, the Congress’ performance in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh cannot take away from the fact that it still lacks organisational cohesion in many States. It may yet flounder if the agenda changes all of a sudden from bread and butter concerns.

For the BJP, the next six months or to the general elections so pose challenges. It needs to regain the confidence of the people as a party that can govern efficiently. The mess at CBI and RBI cannot help here, especially among urban voters. Meanwhile, rural voters and women need some reassurance. The perception that a ‘strong government’ runs the show better is now running thin, if the hung mandates of these elections are any indication. Politically, the BJP needs to reach out to disgruntled allies and potential new ones. It is here that the Modi-Shah duo seem rather out of their depth compared with the Vajpayee-led government. They may sorely need these skills in 2019.

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