India needs to show tact on Rohingyas issue

India’s refusal to criticise the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD-led government in Myanmar on the Rohingya conflict has raised eyebrows in the neighbourhood. The Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government in Dhaka is particularly embarrassed. In the name of counter-insurgency operations, the Myanmarese army had driven away at least one-third of the 1.1 million Arakanese Muslim or Rohingyas in Rakhine state to Chittagong in Bangladesh.

Hasina doesn’t want them. But Muslim-majority Bangladesh cannot turn them away, either. With China supporting Myanmar, and the Islamic world, with the exception of Turkey, remaining quiet, Hasina banked on India’s record of taking an ideological stance and turning the heat on Myanmar.

However, for India to take on Myanmar at a time when it is cementing ties to ward off Chinese influence in the region is expecting too much.

What New Delhi did was to denounce the terrorist attack on security forces by a Rohingya outfit ; express faith in the elected government’s effort for peace and promise “continued support” to Nay Pyi Taw “in consolidating democratic institutions...and for the emergence of a democratic federal republic.” The choice of words has a bearing on the Indian stance. New Delhi is persuading Myanmar to take back the Rohingyas in India.

Myanmar enjoys partial democracy with 25 per cent seats in its Assembly of the Union (parliament) reserved for the army which is also in charge of home affairs, defence and border affairs. The Constitution makes it nearly impossible for democratic forces to override the influence of the army which has a firm grip on power. Recent events have raised suspicion that the army is using the Rohingya issue to destabilise the democratic forces.

Rohingyas are persecuted in Myanmar for raising secessionist demands beginning in the 1940s, much before the oppressive 1982 citizenship law came into force. The army pitted them against democratic forces as late as 2010 when Rohingyas participated in a managed election that was boycotted by Suu Kyi. Some Rohingya representatives were supported by the army-backed USDP.

Given this backdrop, Suu Kyi personally entrusted former UN chief Kofi Annan to suggest “bold measures” to stop human rights abuses in Rakhine. She welcomed the report on August 24 and promised speedy implementation. However, barely weeks before the report was submitted, the army unsuccessfully demanded that a state of emergency be declared in Rakhine. In a more striking coincidence, the Rohingya terror group ARSA launched an attack on the army within hours of submission of the report, giving the army the perfect excuse to hit back.

India, though avoiding any direct criticism of the army, strongly backs the democratic forces in Myanmar.

The other big reason behind India’s stance is China. While India denied entering into deals with the military junta in Myanmar, China tightened its grip on the Myanmarese economy. But democracy is throwing up some unexpected roadblocks to the Chinese agenda as is proved by the controversy over the Myitsone Dam or Nay Pyi Thw’s resistance to China’s claim for majority ownership of Kyauk Pyu port and the SEZ project in Rakhine.

Such conflicts are becoming common in South Asia. As a late entrant India is trying to use this chink in China’s armour to make inroads in Myanmar. Delhi is spending nearly $1.7 billion on infrastructure in Myanmar. Belligerence from India will not only strengthen China’s dominance in Myanmar but cause irreparable damage to Modi’s ‘Act East’ programme and invite security risk in the vulnerable North-East.

The arms deal, the red carpet welcome to Myanmar’s army chief in July, and recently entered security-related agreements indicate India’s attempt to build an all-round relationship. This is, therefore, not the time to blow up opportunities, more so when such belligerence wouldn’t stand a chance before the veto power of China in the UN Security Council.

Having said this, India has a difficult task ahead helping Sheikh Hasina survive the Rohingya issue. A resolution for the return of Rohingya refugees is necessary for the security of both Bangladesh and India, mainly because of the Rohingyas’ link to terrorism.

Since Bangladesh cannot push them back, the solution may be to mobilise global opinion for political reforms in Rakhine. It is Myanmar that has to welcome its people back. The EU resolution is an interesting step in that direction, and India may contribute to it, covertly.

Till then, New Delhi has to do more on aid diplomacy to help Sheikh Hasina. After all, Bangladesh is equally important for India.

COMMENT NOW