No clear road map on emission cuts

India's efforts to develop a road map for growth that is low-carbon-based and inclusive are much-delayed. The expert panel constituted by the Government of India to develop low carbon strategies for inclusive growth in January 2010 was supposed to submit its interim and final report in April and September of the same year.

It was only in May 2011 that the panel, headed by economist Kirit Parikh, submitted its interim report. The final report is still awaited.

In recent years, India has been self-conscious of its emerging-economy status in international discussions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In June 2007, the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, committed at the G8 meeting in Germany that India's per capita emissions will not be allowed to exceed the average per capita emission levels of developed countries.

In December 2009, the Government announced that it would aim to reduce the emission intensity (amount of GHG emitted per rupee of the GDP) of the economy by 20-25 per cent of the 2005 level by 2020.

Emission intensity is a tricky indicator. It can mark a reduction even when both the economy and absolute emissions record growth. The more realistic quantifiers are per capita GHG emissions and gross emissions of the country.

Currently, India's per capita emissions are very low compared with the other emerging and developed economies. At 1.18 tonnes per capita per year (2008 figure), it is many times lower than that of the US (19.10), Russia (11.24), the UK (8.60), South Africa (7.27), China (4.58) and even the world average of 4.38 tonnes per capita per year.

Two scenarios

The interim report of the Kirit Parikh panel projects two scenarios. The first one requires a ‘determined effort' to reduce emission intensity by 23-25 per cent of the 2005 level by 2020 and the second one requires an ‘aggressive effort' to reduce emission intensity by 33-35 per cent.

While keeping the twin targets of reducing the emission intensity and supporting a 9 per cent growth for the GDP, the panel estimates an emission of 3.03 tonnes per capita of carbon dioxide by the year 2020 with the former and 2.66 tonnes with the latter.

What the expert panel avoids talking about is the gross emissions from the country. Even low per capita emissions multiplied 1.2 billion times lead to a sizable total. In 2008, India had a total emission of 1.74 billion tonnes. Only China (7.03 Bt), US (5.46 Bt) and the European Union as a bloc (4.17 Bt) had higher figures.

There is no need to adopt an ostrich-in-the-sand approach and avoid discussing gross emissions. In a warming world, there cannot be an “acceptable emission level.” However, a fair amount of energy is required per person in every part of the country for inclusive growth.

Projecting a population of 1.3 billion by 2020, India's gross emissions can go to 3.94 Bt, assuming that the ‘determined effort' at 9 per cent growth is put in place and through it the per capita emissions are limited at 3.03 tonnes. This is still lower than the 1998 gross emissions figure for the top three.

The two variables in this extrapolation are population and per capita GHG emissions in the year 2020. The population graph in India has stabilised over the years and the expected population over the mid-term future can be reliably projected. The per capita emission is more difficult to project. The panel of experts led by Kirit Parikh has done part of the work by projecting that a certain figure is achievable.

Pyramid sans foundation

What the panel has not yet said — how this can be achieved — is more critical than what they have said. The interim report of the expert panel does list a menu of options for low-carbon inclusive growth. A more detailed assessment of the costs and the institutional measure required are promised in the final report.

Since the expert panel was constituted by the Planning Commission, and since its deliberations were running parallel to the process of developing the Twelfth Plan, it can be hoped that some of the processes recommended by the panel are incorporated into the Plan.

Though the Plan Document itself is not yet public, the approach paper for the Plan, released in October 2011, does incorporate the main thinking from the panel's interim report.

India should have undertaken the process of developing a road map for low carbon and inclusive growth long ago. During many Conferences of Parties (COPs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Indian negotiators have taken a position against accepting binding emission reduction targets.

Over the years, India has pushed itself into a leadership position both for developing countries and also the emerging BRICS economies.

This is fair enough, since it is necessary to take positions in international negotiations, or else face the prospect of being bulldozed by the powerful lobbies. However, taking positions externally without having a road map in place internally is like building a pyramid without a foundation.

Quite apart from whatever position Indian representatives continue to take in international negotiations, low-carbon-based growth will help the country reduce its wastage of resources and help industry become more competitive. The road map is the primary requirement, which has to be supported with an institutional mechanism to build and strengthen a green economy.

Hurry up with the final report!

(The author is the regional environment manager with Panos South Asia. The views are personal.)

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