Pakistan faces isolation and uncertainty

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN is known among friends and admirers in Pakistan and elsewhere to be high profile, ambitious and loquacious. Lodhi is regarded as having being close to the military establishment since her days as editor in Islamabad.

She was also close to Benazir Bhutto in the 1990s, but was at loggerheads with Nawaz Sharif during his first two terms as prime minister. Insiders believe that Nawaz agreed to her appointment as ambassador to the UN in his third term, after “persuasion” by the military. Having served twice as Pakistan’s envoy in Washington, and as a close friend of the India-baiting Robin Raphael, Lodhi evidently thought she would crown her tenure in New York by getting the issue of Jammu and Kashmir back on the UN agenda with the support of her many friends and admirers in Washington.

Lodhi persuaded Pakistan’s interim prime minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, to launch a broadside against India in New York. Abbasi resorted to the usual rhetoric about alleged violations on human rights in Jammu and Kashmir and references to antiquated UN resolutions, whose texts have long been thrown into UN wastepaper baskets. Pakistanis, however, never speak of the Simla Agreement, while in New York! Not surprisingly, India’s external affairs minister, Sushma Swaraj responded sarcastically, drawing attention to Pakistan’s record as a state sponsor of terrorism. She noted that while India was building institutions that are “the pride of the world”, Pakistan had only “produced terrorists and terrorist camps” of groups like the Lashkar-e-taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizb-ul Mujahideen and Haqqani Network.

But what appears to have got under Lodhi’s skin was the description of Pakistan as “Terroristan” by a young Indian first secretary, Eenam Gambhir. An irate Maleeha Lodhi became the subject of ridicule internationally and was blasted even in the Pakistani media when she displayed a photograph in the General Assembly of a young Palestinian girl wounded by Israeli pellets, bizarrely claiming that this photograph exposed Indian excesses in Kashmir!

How then does one deal with a Pakistan which faces growing isolation, when ruled by a government deprived of its elected leader, Nawaz Sharif, following a farcical trial, where the investigators included members of the military intelligence services, with the judiciary dancing to the tune of the military? It is evident that the military has no intention of permitting Sharif to return to power. The generals are determined to see that a supine judiciary disqualifies him from participating in the 2018 general elections. The Intelligence Bureau, which reported to Sharif, is seeking to hold the ISI responsible for backing terrorist outfits.

In the meantime, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are falling sharply and the IMF has thus far shown disinclination to bail it out. Pakistani economists are warning about the long-term problems posed by China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ project: Pakistan has to soon commence repaying Chinese loans of over $50 billion at near commercial rates of interest. This, while Japan provides India long-term loans requiring negligible interest payments.

American academic Ashley Tellis, who undertook his graduate and post-graduate studies in Mumbai’s St Xavier’s College, is a highly regarded analyst on sub-continental strategic studies, in Washington. In a recent study he published, Tellis clinically argues that routine calls for a “continuous India Pakistan dialogue” are “misguided” and “counterproductive”. Tellis notes that differences between India and Pakistan are fuelled by “Pakistan’s irredentism, its army’s desire to subvert India’s ascendancy as a great power, seeking revenge for past Indian military victories”. He adds the Pakistan army has “aspirations to be treated on par with India, despite their huge differences in capabilities, achievements and prospects”. Senior officials, particularly in the Pentagon and White House, share these views.

Even influential and previously pro-Pakistani senators such as John McCain have said that Pakistani duplicity is wearing thin their patience. The fact that US Defence Secretary General Mattis visited India and Afghanistan and deliberately bypassed Pakistan, speaks for itself. But, given the propensity of President Trump to change his stance suddenly on foreign policy issues, India would be well advised not to be overly dependent on consistency in Trump administration policies.

Significantly, almost immediately after the Mattis visit, Pakistan’s army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa led a military delegation to Kabul to meet President Ashraf Ghani. It is clear that Bajwa and the ISI will decide how relations with Afghanistan and India will be conducted. The emasculated civilian leadership in Pakistan, under a cloud legally and preparing for elections, will merely be spectators, carrying out the wishes of the military.

New Delhi now has to undertake a concerted diplomatic effort to take advantage of developments. No effort should be spared to make Pakistan pay a heavy price for its errant conduct. Dialogue, if any, with Pakistan, should be almost exclusively focused on terrorism. India has to simultaneously take measures to engage people and organisations across Pakistan who seek better ties with it, while meeting the humanitarian needs of people, particularly children, in Pakistan requiring medical treatment in India, as Sushma Swaraj has consistently demonstrated. Indian diplomacy should have a humane dimension. There are sections of people in Pakistan tired of the country’s domination by the army.

Diplomatically, India should make common cause with Afghanistan, and insist that Pakistan does not merely put all its terrorist outfits temporarily in cold storage to win American “understanding”, but defangs and dismantles them. These would include the Talban and Haqqani Network, active in Afghanistan, and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Hizb-ul Mujahideen, operating against India.

China should be reminded to fulfil its obligations, agreed to during the BRICS summit, to pressure Pakistan to act against terrorist groups. The international community and multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank should be asked to link development funding for Pakistan to action against terrorism. Trump will hopefully take up these issues when he visits China. But ultimately, much will depend on the ability of the Afghan government to develop internal political consensus.

Winter snows will soon close the Himalayan mountain passes in Kashmir. India should be ready with pro-active measures to respond effectively to infiltration across the LoC when the snows melt in 2018.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

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