The intelligent ‘average' voter

I have never felt so happy in my life as now, when every commentator, news analyst, politician and anyone who has anything to say on anything is crediting me, the “average” voter, with lots and lots of intelligence. Just as there is a mythical animal called “aam admi” or the common man , so there is an average voter. Winston Churchill, however, seems to have had a poor opinion of the average voter when he stated, “the best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter”. But there is a paradox. How can such an intelligent average voter like me get cheated by the politicians every five years or even more frequently?

In the recent UP elections, the average voter seems to have gone bonkers by preferring ‘taint' over talent, returning 189 MLAs with criminal records.

Method in his madness

Speaking for myself, I wonder if my voting experience will allow me to be classified as an average voter. I have voted in General Elections, State Assembly polls and even local body elections, totally about 15 times in a span of over 50 eligible years. My record in picking stocks is better than selecting winners in elections. A few years ago, when my mother was alive, 85 then, she insisted on voting since she liked the polished and courteous manners of the only candidate who came to our door step. I wonder how psephologists factor such voters who exercise their franchise based on purely subjective preferences such as gender, winsome looks, and so on.

The subject of an average voter is a much researched one in academic circles. It is generally presumed that the average voter has to take a call, each time he is called to exercise his franchise, either on his political preference or his future economic well-being. Additionally, here in India it seems he is vengeful? As a matter of routine, he deliberately excludes the incumbent or his party candidate from the field of choice. Bryan Caplan, in his book The Myth of the Rational Voter , treats the average voter in the US as a nutcase with a method in his madness. “Even when his (the average voter) views are completely wrong, he gets the psychological benefit of emotionally appealing political beliefs at a bargain price. No wonder he buys in bulk.” As experience is gathered, there is a growing body of knowledge on electoral democracy, the success of which is pinned on the level of education of the average voter and, more importantly, on the selection of candidates.

Democracy-education interplay

A recent paper (Fortunato, economist and Panizza, Chief of Analysis, Unctad 2011), developed a simple model of candidate selection in which the outcome of the electoral process is determined by the interplay between the level of democracy and that of education. It showed that electoral democracy leads to the placement of better politicians in power only if the level of education is above a certain threshold. The model also revealed that even though high-quality politicians are not inherently more honest than low-quality politicians, more competent elected officials endogenously adopt a more honest behaviour.

Under the present circumstances, one cannot but recall what the late Nani Palkhivala, India's best known constitutional lawyer, said in an interview, “…. I say that no country has ever paid so highly a price for adult franchise as India”.

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