What’s Donald done today?” That might be a joke on X or it might be a genuine question from a Washington insider, watching Trump rapidly upend the world. Greenland one day, Colombia the next, and it looks like he may seek to grab back the Panama Canal soon. And hey, what about Canada? Will he send troops to make the resource-rich country the 51st star on the US flag?

There’s no telling where Trump’s attention will veer next. One moment, he’s demanding Denmark hand over Greenland, the next he’s sending combat troops to the US-Mexican border. Then, he’s sparking a diplomatic row with Colombia by deporting illegal immigrants in chains while immigration officers scour US cities for more to expel. And let’s not even start on H-1B visas and his push to remove birthright citizenship for children born in the US. Infosys alone secured 8,140 H-1Bs between April and September last year. If children of Indian tech workers face uncertain citizenship, could the US lose its appeal for skilled talent? Certainly, many grads must be re-examining career plans in a country that feels less welcoming.

Wall Street hasn’t really had much time to react to the whirlwind of Trump actions but it took a nosedive Monday after the shock news that tiny Chinese tech firm DeepSeek, using significantly cheaper chips, has produced an advanced AI model challenging the dominance of arrogant Silicon Valley giants. Nvidia, with its near-monopoly on high-end AI chips production, saw its value plunge by a staggering $600 billion, marking a record one-day loss.

Meanwhile, Trump’s plans to hammer Mexico and Canada with crippling tariffs are sending shockwaves through allied nations. Across Europe, governments are alarmed and even the super-rich at the Davos summit are rattled. Canada and Mexico, both close Washington allies, only signed US trade agreements last year. Now, the US wants more concessions. As Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman noted, “If all agreements can be ripped up in response to some new grievance or to take advantage of a shift in the balance of power, then no trade deal is secure.”

However, Rachman observed a sharply different sentiment in the “global south” — across Africa, the Middle East and Asia, including India — which are welcoming the US’s blunt approach. “There’ll be no more preaching, the human rights mask is off and the US will say plainly what it wants,” said one diplomat. Still, Indian officials are just as baffled as the rest of the world about Trump’s next moves.

Uncertainties remain

India is relieved to see pro-India Marco Rubio as Secretary of State but uncertainties remain. Nobody knows where the Trump bludgeon might land next. In a conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi he suggested India should buy more US arms and lower tariffs. Modi is likely to visit the US soon.

There’s guarded optimism though in India’s IT sector, though. Trump’s policies historically have aimed at driving US economic growth, which could lead to increased IT spending by US-based businesses. The last Trump administration reduced corporate taxes, leaving businesses with more funds to invest in technology and outsourcing. If similar policies return, they could boost demand for Indian IT services. Even under stricter visa regimes, there’s recognition of the need for skilled foreign tech workers, and Indian firms could plug the gap. As for birthright citizenship, there’s hope it will get bogged down in the courts for years, delaying any immediate worry.

The country angriest about Trump’s threats is unquestionably Canada. Trump’s plans to slap 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Canadian imports have triggered vows of “robust” counter-tariffs and talk of halting US-bound energy shipments. The US-Canada border, famously the “world’s longest undefended border” has symbolised decades of neighbourly cooperation. But some analysts saw trouble brewing. “I’ve always thought there may come a day when the US says: ‘We want your water, your oil, your minerals.’ That day might come sooner,” says one analyst.

Trump added fuel to the fire by posting on social media an image of the Star-Spangled Banner over both the US and Canada. Fox News host Jesse Watters even aggressively asked Ontario Premier Doug Ford: “What’s your problem with the US absorbing Canada?” When Ford replied that Canada is “not for sale,” Watters called the remark “personally insulting,” adding, “I would consider it would be a privilege to be taken over by the United States of America.”

If Trump turns out to be serious about expanding US borders, it’s a move that could unite both the global north and south — in agreement that Trump’s brand of disruption is bad news.

Published on January 28, 2025