It is Rabi harvest time in Punjab. One of the grains seems mighty chuffed and excited about life and is lustily singing ‘Main nikala, O gaddi leke’, much to the amusement of the other grains.

Grain 1: Oye Wheat Paaji! You seem to be very happy! Ki gaal hain?

Grain 2 (in a sing-song fashion): Ek mod aayaa, main uthe dil chhod aayaa! Had you ever imagined, paaji, that our lives would also get a twist and that we would reach Egypt?

G1: Ki kehende paaye ho tussi! Are we really going to Egypt instead of that crowded, noisy mandi? How exciting! But how did that happen?

G2: Arre yaar, its because of that Russi Munda Putin. He suddenly decided to invade Ukraine. Now, Russia and Ukraine i.e. the Black Sea Mundas are famous grain farmers. Together, they produce 14 per cent of total wheat output of the world.

G1 (snorting): Hmph, usme kya hain ji? India also produces 14 per cent of the wheat output of the world!

G2 (condescendingly): Yes, but how much do we export? Well, you see, most of the wheat is used internally to feed our own 134 crore people. Whereas the Black Sea walas have it easy! Their population is about an eighth of the Indian population. So, they export most of their produce. With a 14 per cent share in production, the Black Sea neighbourhood manages to have 30 per cent of the share of global wheat exports. Black Sea wheat feeds countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia and many African countries. However, with the exact same 14 per cent share in production, India barely has a share of 1 per cent in global exports.

G1 (glumly): Yes, I haven’t really heard of any of our mates leaving the Indian shores. Nahi Paaji, we are neither exported nor sold, we are normally ‘procured’! Which is alright, provided they house us correctly, but alas! Our lot is often at the mercy of rodents and the rains. Then, if you are lucky at all and haven’t sprouted, shrunk or got a black eye, you are pushed into PDS. Hopefully you land up in a ration shop and aren’t siphoned off illegally enroute to the shop. And even there, we are mixed with stone and sticks and what not. Ah, the indignity!

G2 (earnestly): This is all going to change now, Paaji! In the current scenario, Ukrainian farmers have been unable to harvest produce this year. The sowing for next season also seems difficult. The Russians have had a good harvest, but they are facing sanctions. So suddenly, 30 per cent of global wheat exports have vanished! And what does that imply? Wheat prices are through the roof, Paaji! This is one of those few times when the MSP is below the international wheat prices. India has wheat exactly when the world wants it, the soft rupee is just perfect for us and we are going to Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey! Mein nikala, o gaddi leke!

G1 (light dawning in the eyes): Oh, is that why we are getting tested for quality? I mean, it was quite a pleasant surprise for me to be in a lab and see the inside of a moisture meter. Indian grains rarely get to do that. For the humble Indian grain, you see, the Arthiya is the lab. He samples a fistful of grain in his hands; his fingers are the sieve. He has insta X-ray vision to determine extent of damaged seeds. And his teeth serve as errr, the moisture meter. Eww!

G2 (haughtily): All this will change rapidly this year, Paaji! Of course, its not that easy to break into new markets. Now, Egypt is the major importer of wheat in the world. The bread subsidy programme in Egypt which helps millions to fight hunger depends on imported wheat. Egypt has an import dependency of nearly 80 per cent on Russia and Ukraine. No wonder, that the Egyptian officials have been floating global tenders to explore other options of sourcing wheat. This is the exact G2G opportunity that India must clinch!

G1 (suddenly depressed): You mean all these years we were being procured by the Indian agencies, and now we will be procured by the Egyptian agencies? So once we are tested and certified, we will get into swanky ships and move to Egypt, only to meet Egyptian rodents, Egyptian sticks and stones and Egyptian ration shopkeepers? And from what I hear, wheat doesn’t only excite rats into action in Egypt, it incites riots as well. Oh damn, I am already missing my noisy, crowded mandi!

(Labourers pack G1 into export gunny bags)

G2 (changing song): Ghar aajaa pardesi tera des bulaaye re!

The author is a brave economist trying to laugh against the odds

comment COMMENT NOW