Crude oil prices were up last week. The Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ($68/barrel) was up 4.9 per cent, whereas the crude oil futures on the MCX (₹5,479/barrel) gained 3.9 per cent.

Brent futures ($68)

Brent crude oil futures surpassed a resistance at $66 last week. After marking an intra-week high of $68.14 on Thursday, it closed the week slightly lower at $68.

That said, the trend has not turned bullish. In fact, this up-move is likely to be only a corrective rally within the downtrend. 

So, there is a chance that the contract can resume the decline anywhere between $69 and $70.70. This potential fall can drag the contract to $61.

But in case $70.70 is breached, the upswing can extend to $75.

MCX-Crude oil (₹5,479)

The May crude oil futures rallied above the resistance at ₹5,350, hit a high of ₹5,501 on Thursday before ending the session at ₹5,479.

Although there is some more upside left, it is likely to be capped between ₹5,620 and ₹5,750. Only a clear breakout of the latter can turn the outlook positive, in which case, the price can move up to ₹6,500.

But as the contract has not shed the bearish inclination, we expect it to resume the fall. Crude oil futures (May) can retest the support at ₹5,000.

Trade strategy: Last week, we had suggested going short on April futures at ₹5,400. As it will expire on April 21, exit this trade on Monday at the session open.

Then sell May crude oil futures if it rises to ₹5,620 with a stop-loss at ₹5,820. When the price falls to ₹5,250, revise the stop-loss to ₹5,500. Book profits at ₹5,050.

Published on April 19, 2025