Commodity Calls

MCX Lead: gearing up for a bullish breakout

Gurumurthy K | Updated on January 18, 2018


The Lead futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) continues to trade within the broad sideways range of ₹155-168 a kg. The contract has been stuck inside this range for more than two months now. Within this, the contract has been trading in between ₹160 and ₹165 in the past week. The outlook remains the same.

A breakout on either side of ₹155 or ₹168 will decide the next trend. A decisive weekly close above ₹166 will be an initial sign indicating that the contract gaining momentum and is on the verge of breaching ₹168. Such a break above ₹168 will pave way for the next targets if ₹171 and ₹172. The 21-week moving average and a trendline support — both poised at ₹160 — are the key near-term supports. The contract will come under pressure only if it breaks below ₹160 decisively.

Such a break can take the contract lower to ₹155 – the lower end of the range. However, the outlook will turn bearish only if the contract declines decisively below ₹155.

Such a break, though looks less probable at the moment, will increase the possibility of the contract falling to ₹150 or even lower levels thereafter.

Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis and there is a risk of loss in trading.

Published on January 18, 2018

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