Nifty 50 February Futures (16,988)

Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep the risky assets such as the equities under pressure. The global equities have run into a strong sell-off as the market is highly risk-averse on the back of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. All the major Asian indices are down sharply today. Hang Seng (23,384), down 3.26 per cent, has been beaten down the most. Nikkei 2225 (26,347), Shanghai Composite (3,443) and Kospi (2,703) are down in the range of 1.3-1.75 per cent.

The Indian benchmark indices are also down over a per cent following the sell-off in the other global markets. Both Sensex and Nifty are down about 1.15 per cent each and are trading at 57,020 and 17,015, respectively. Both Sensex and Nifty are looking vulnerable to see a steeper fall towards 56,000-55,000 and 16,800-16,600, respectively, in the coming weeks. Any intermediate bounce is likely to be short-lived.

Futures: The Nifty 50 February (16,998) Futures is down 1.2 per cent. The contract made a low of 16,912 and is attempting to bounce back. Strong resistance is in the 17,100-17,120 region. A break above 17,120 is less likely. The outlook is bearish, and the Nifty Futures contract can fall to 16.750 and even lower in the coming days.

Traders can go short now and also accumulate on the rise at 17,080. Stop-loss can be placed at 17,180. Trail the stop-loss down to 16,960 as soon as the contract moves down to 16,880. Move the stop-loss further down to 16,870 as soon as the contract touches 16,810. Book profits at 16,780.

The contract will have to rise past 17,120 decisively to ease the downside pressure. Such a break will then pave the way for a test of 17,200 and higher levels. But that looks less likely as the risk aversion in the market is more likely to bring fresh sellers into the market in the coming days.

Trade Strategy:

1. Go short now and at 17,080 with a stop-loss at 17,180 for the target of 16,780.

2. Trail the stop-loss down to 16,960 as soon as the contract moves down to 16,880.

3. Move the stop-loss further down to 16,870 as soon as the contract touches 16,810.

Supports: 16,750 and 16,500

Resistances: 17,120 and 17,200

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