Technical Analysis

Rupee weak below 75.6

Akhil Nallamuthu, BL Research Bureau | Updated on May 21, 2020

According to experts, over the next few years, cash in circulation will grow in line with GDP growth as India is a predominantly cash economy

The rupee (INR) has begun the session at 75.68 versus its previous close of 75.79 against the dollar (USD). On Wednesday, the Indian currency depreciated by 0.2 per cent, ending the session 75.79. There was a negative impact on rupee yesterday as the Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI) dumped domestic assets. The net outflow of FPIs stood at ₹1,466 crore (equity and debt combined).

If the rupee gains from current level, it will face a hindrance at 75.6. A breakout of that level can take the exchange rate of USDINR to 75.4. But if the local unit weakens, it will find support at 75.8 and 76. A break below that level can intensify sell-off, dragging the rupee to 76.3.

Dollar index

The dollar index closed with a loss for third consecutive day. Today, it has rebounded a bit and is trading at 99.35 after taking support at 99. The index has been oscillating in a sideways trend between 98.8 and 101 and it should breach any of these levels to confirm the next leg of trend.

Trade strategy

As long as the rupee trades below 75.6, it can be bearish. Hence, for intraday, traders can sell rupee with stop-loss at 75.5.

Supports: 75.8 and 76

Resistances: 75.6 and 75.4

Published on May 21, 2020

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