I am holding stocks of IRCTC at an average price of ₹861. What is the long-term technical outlook? Can I accumulate now?
Kishan Kumar Verma
IRCTC (₹596.6): The stock has been in a strong downtrend. However, a series of supports are coming up. The first one is immediately at ₹584. The next supports are at ₹555 and at ₹529. Even if a reversal is seen from any of the above-mentioned supports, a rise past ₹760 is needed to become bullish completely. But that looks unlikely at the current situation. In case IRCTC breaks below ₹529, the downside can extend up to ₹470-460. This ₹470-460 is a strong long-term trend support that can halt the current fall. A fresh and strong bounce from there can breach ₹760 and revisit ₹1,200-1,300 That upmove will also have the potential to target ₹1,700 over the long term. Hold the stock only if you can withstand the draw-down. Else exit at current levels. If you wish to hold it, buy 30 per cent of what you intend to accumulate at ₹560. Buy the balance at ₹485. Keep a stop-loss at ₹410. Move the stop-loss up to ₹520 as soon as the stock rises above ₹780. Move the stop-loss further up to ₹820 as soon as the stock touches ₹1,060 on the upside. Exit 30 per cent of your holding at ₹1,250 and bring the stop-loss up to ₹1,050 for the rest. Have a target of ₹1,650 for the balance of your holding.
I have bought the shares of Dilip Buildcon at ₹264. What is the long-term outlook for this stock?
Dilip Buildcon (₹198.45): The stock is hovering just above a very crucial long-term trend support poised at ₹197. Another important support is at ₹170. It has to necessarily hold above ₹170 to avoid a steeper fall below the psychological level of ₹100. A break below ₹170 will increase the danger of a fall to ₹100 or ₹50. In that case, the stock will find it difficult to recover sharply. On the other hand, if the stock manages to sustain above ₹197 and ₹170 and then moves above ₹270 in the coming months, then it will be bullish. In that case, the chances are high for the stock to touch ₹600-650 in the next couple of years. Considering the quantum of fall the stock has already seen, we place higher probability for the stock to sustain above ₹170 and see a reversal. So, you can accumulate at current levels and also at ₹180 if a decline below ₹197 is seen. Keep a stop-loss at ₹130 and hold it for the long-term target of ₹600. Move the stop-loss up to ₹240 as soon as the stock rises to ₹360. Move the stop-loss further up to ₹420 when the stock touches ₹540 on the upside.
I had bought Greenpanel Industries at ₹233. What is the long-term outlook? Should I hold for another couple of years or exit?
Greenpanel Industries (₹436.1): The sharp fall from the high of ₹625 made in April this year clearly indicates a top in place. There is also a head and shoulder reversal pattern visible on the chart. The strong uptrend that was in place since 2020 is under threat. The neckline level of this pattern is coming up at ₹434. The next support is at ₹395 – the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level and a long-term trendline support is also poised around this level. So, a break below ₹395 will indicate a trend reversal. Such a break can then drag the stock down to ₹320-300. It is now important for you to protect your profit. So, you can exit at least 30 per cent of your holding at current levels. Place a stop-loss at ₹370 for the balance and hold it. In case the stock manages to sustain above ₹395 and moves above ₹520, then the uptrend will remain intact. In that case, the stock can rise to ₹750-800 and you can exit your balance holding at ₹750.