What is the outlook for IFCI? I am holding the shares at an average price of ₹62. Should I continue to hold it or exit? Please suggest.

Siyaram Khandelwal

IFCI (₹45.76): It looks like you have caught this stock near the top. IFCI shares touched a high of ₹71.70 earlier last month and has come down sharply from there. The outlook has turned negative now. Strong resistance is around ₹51. IFCI share price can fall to ₹42-40 in the next few weeks. Though a bounce is possible thereafter, the stock has to rise past ₹51 now to become bullish again. In case, a break below ₹40 is seen, then that will intensify the selling pressure. In such a scenario, the stock can fall to ₹33-32 in the short term.

As mentioned above, a strong rise past ₹51 is needed to open the doors for a revisit of ₹60-70 levels. But that looks less likely as the recent fall has been very sharp. So, we expect the stock to remain below ₹51 and fall to ₹40, and even ₹33 going forward. As such, we suggest you to exit the stock at current levels and accept the loss. Please note that whenever you enter a stock make sure to have proper risk management strategy in place. That will help in minimising the loss.

I would like to know about the outlook for the shares of Jindal Worldwide. I am holding this stock for six months. My average purchase price is ₹380. Can I hold for the stock for long term?

R S Lakshmi Narayana, Visakhapatnam

Jindal Worldwide (₹421): The outlook is bullish. The stock price has surged last week breaking above a crucial resistance level of ₹380. The moving average cross overs on the daily chart strengthens the bullish case. On the weekly chart also, the moving averages are on the verge of crossing over each other. So, it indicates that downside could be limited. Fresh buyers are likely to come into the market at lower levels. Jindal Worldwide share price can rise to ₹550. If it manages to breach ₹550, the upside can extend up to ₹650.

The outlook will turn negative only if the stock price declines below ₹375. If that happens, though less likely, the stock can fall to ₹300-280. You can hold the stock and even consider accumulating more on dips at ₹390 if that happens. Keep a stop-loss at ₹330. Trail the stop-loss up to ₹410 when the price touches ₹480. Move the stop-loss further up to ₹510 when the price moves up to ₹545. Exit the stock at ₹635.

I have shares of Punjab National Bank bought at ₹120. What is the outlook for this stock?

Gandhi V

Punjab National Bank (₹125.75): The long-term trend is up. But within that, the stock has made an interim top as of now around ₹130. Immediate support is at ₹116. A break below it can drag the stock down to ₹100-95 in the next few months. A fall beyond ₹95 is less likely. Even if that happens, the downside can be limited to ₹85. But such a fall below ₹95 will be a worst-case scenario. Our preference will be to see the downside being limited to ₹95.

A fresh rally from the ₹100-95 support zone will have the potential to take Punjab National Bank share price up to ₹200-220 over the next couple of years. Assuming that you are a long-term investor, you can hold the stock. But make sure to accumulate at ₹110 and ₹100.  Keep a stop-loss at ₹75. Revise the stop-loss up to ₹110 as soon as the stock price moves up to ₹160. Move the stop-loss further up to ₹180 when the price touches ₹195. Exit the stock at ₹210.

Send your questions to techtrail@thehindu.co.in