Here are answers to readers’ queries on the performance of their stock holdings.
I hold Ultratech Cement shares bought at ₹3,400. Please suggest the short, medium and long-term targets.
Vamsi
Ultratech Cement (₹2,775.4): The stock of Ultratech Cement continues to be in a long-term uptrend. Since recording an all-time high at ₹3,399 in March 2015, the stock has been consolidating sideways in a broad range between ₹2,600 and ₹3,400. Within this range, the stock has been on a medium-term sideways movement in the ₹2,600-₹3,000 band since August 2015.
As long as the stock trades above ₹2,600, it can re-test the upper boundary at ₹3,000 in the short to medium term.
Strong breach of the key resistance level of ₹3,000 can take the stock higher to ₹3,200 initially and then to ₹3,400 in the long run.
However, a decisive plunge below ₹2,600 can trigger selling pressure and drag the stock down to ₹2,400 in the short term. Further decline can drag the stock down to the significant support level of ₹2,000 in the medium to long term.
I have Ador Welding and Jammu & Kashmir Bank (J&K Bank). What is the medium to long term outlook?
Anil
Ador Welding (₹241.8): Though the stock of Ador Welding conclusively broke a key resistance at ₹300 in early December 2015, it failed to sustain the momentum.
After registering a multi-year high at ₹364, in mid-December, the stock reversed direction.
Since then, the stock has been on a medium-term downtrend, It breached the key supports at ₹300 and ₹260 while trending down. However, the stock now tests support at around ₹230.
A fall below this level can reinforce the bearish momentum and drag it down to ₹220 and then to ₹200 — significant long-term support levels. Investors should tread with caution around these support levels.
A decisive plunge below ₹200 can trigger selling pressure and drag the stock down to ₹150 in the long run.
But, an upward reversal can keep the stock's uptrend that started in mid 2013 in place and take the stock northwards to ₹300. Subsequent resistances are at ₹350 and ₹385.
Jammu & Kashmir Bank (₹62.6): Ever since recording an all-time high at ₹199.5 in May 2014, the stock of Jammu & Kashmir Bank has been on a long-term downtrend. Both medium as well as short-term trends are down. The stock trades well below its 50 and 200-day moving averages.
The indicators in the daily chart feature in the bearish zone backing the stock’s downtrend. Last week, the stock has conclusive breached a key long-term support at ₹67 by declining 5.4 per cent and marked a multi-year low.
The stock can now find support at either ₹56 or further down at ₹50 in the medium term. An upward reversal from these support levels can take it higher to ₹67, ₹75 and ₹86 levels in the medium term. Significant resistances above ₹86 are at ₹96, ₹105 and ₹120.
To alter the long-term downtrend, the stock needs to decisively break the key resistance level at ₹130. Next resistances are placed at ₹145 and ₹155. Key long-term supports below ₹50 are placed at the levels of ₹40 and ₹30.
Send your queries to techtrail@thehindu.co.in
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