The odd-even number plate plan to keep out half the population of passenger cars from Delhi’s roads ended earlier this week, and the government may be giving itself a pat on the back for its successful implementation. But, the national capital region’s air continues to be extremely polluted.

The issue of whether diesel vehicles are the culprit will still be debated, with the automobile industry countering it by pointing to the findings in the IIT Kanpur report, which says that, overall, trucks and road dust are bigger pollutants. Now, the government has said that the emission norms will be tightened and the implementation of BSVI norms will be advanced to the year 2020.

So, what exactly does the move to leapfrog to BSVI from the current BSIV mean to each stakeholder? We will start with the basics.

Euro Vs Bharat Stage norms Both the emission norms stipulate maximum limits for three main pollutants in diesel automobile emissions. They are NOx (mono-nitrogen oxide), SOx (sulphur oxides) and suspended particulate matter which are smaller than 2.5 microns or invisible to the naked eye (PM2.5).

Bharat Stage (BS) emission norms are formulated to mirror the exact, absolute emission levels that are stipulated for the (European) Euro emissions norms, except for some difference in the averaging given Indian driving conditions. For example, the speed at which the vehicle is tested on the dynamometer (tread mill) is slower than the European cycle and the weight placed in the car while testing is higher in the Indian test for BS norms.

What does the change to BSVI mean? As far as passenger cars are concerned, two aspects change with the change from BSIV to BSV, and then from BSV to BSVI.

For the changeover from BSIV to BSV, as per the regulation, PM2.5 levels will have to be lowered.

Since PM2.5 levels are negligible after this stage, there is no change in their levels when the norm moves from BSV to BSVI. But there is a reduction in NOx levels.

In the case of heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs), currently all of them are stipulated to meet BSIII emission norms. The move to BSIV cannot happen for HCVs until the supply of low sulphur fuel can be ensured nationwide. That deadline is set for year 2017 for the oil marketing companies’ network and for the emission norms to kick in for HCVs.

For these vehicles, the move from BSIII to BSIV will lead to a significant reduction in PM2.5 levels. Similarly, the move from BSV to BSVI will lead to a reduction in PM emission levels and NOx for HCVs. But there is no significant reduction in PM levels if the regulation changes from BSIV to BSV.

What are the changes needed for going from BSIV to BSVI?In the fuel : To ensure compliance to BSVI norms the first element is high quality fuel, which in the case of diesel is Ultra Low Sulphur diesel. The current BSIV diesel has 50ppm of sulphur (parts per million) and Ultra low sulphur diesel will have 10 ppm of sulphur. The oil industry has said that BSVI quality diesel will be available from the year 2020. And that the total investments that each oil company will have to invest to ensure the higher grade fuel can be delivered is about US $ 2 billion.

In the Cars: For PM emissions to be brought down to the level stipulated by the BSVI norms, diesel passenger cars need to be fitted with a particulate filter (DPF). The car will also need to be fitted with a DeNOx Catalytic converter to reduce NOx emissions. This is a selective catalytic reduction device, which involves fitting a urea tank and injection system to convert toxic NOx emissions to inert gases. There is a whole host of other related components and sensors that need to be fitted to make sure that all the systems work in conjunction with the others.

Why are the car makers complaining? Most car manufacturers have access to the technology that is needed to be used to make their vehicles meet the more stringent emission norm. It is not so much acquiring the tech that is the problem; it is the development work that is needed for integrating these technologies into their cars which is complicated and time-consuming.

Given the average model life cycle at about six years, the development and production cycles for the cars manufactured during the interim years will have to factor in the emission norms in vogue then and the ones that are around the corner. So, the vendors who manufacture composite parts like injection systems, catalytic converters and exhaust systems will have to work with the car maker for calibrating the cars individually in every manufacturer’s portfolio. It doesn’t make it any easier even if these cars are sold in markets where a EuroVI equivalent norm is already in place.

After the components’ integration work is completed, car manufacturers have to do fleet testing with commercial grade fuel, which is currently not available since BSVI grade fuel will only be supplied from the year 2020.

So, automobile industry claims that there is a big question mark on how many cars can be developed and produced by both the vendors and the OEMs in time to meet the higher emissions norm. Also, by dramatically shortening the time frame for meeting BSVI norms, the opportunity to localise parts production may have been lost. Therefore, costs will also be higher.

What does it mean for the car buyer? Leapfrogging to BSVI norms is a significant jump in terms of the technology that needs to be used to meet the stipulated emission levels.

There will be a big increase in the cost of producing these cars and so the ex-showroom prices will naturally also reflect this.

Diesel car prices would go up disproportionately, compared to petrol cars due to the higher number of parts that will be needed. Petrol car prices will also have to factor in the increase in costs.

The increased prices could range from Rs 20,000 to Rs 2 lakh for diesel cars.

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