Given that Britons who wished their country to leave the European Union typically have a nationalist, climate denying mindset, the Brexit verdict was initially feared to be a big negative for climate change action and renewable energy. For, after all, UK is the world’s fifth-biggest economy whose actions could set precedents. However, later developments indicate that things are not that bad.

On June 30, the UK government accepted the Fifth Carbon Budget recommendations of the Committee on Climate Change, which lays a road map for the country to reduce its carbon emissions by 57 per cent by 2033, from 1990 levels.

The acceptance of the Fifth Carbon Budget is a strong signal. Coming on the heels of a statement from the Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom — incidentally, who supports Brexit — that the country is committed to fighting climate change, it is a major reassurance to climate action groups. Even the hard-to-satisfy Greenpeace has praised the Fifth Carbon Budget.

Experts read good business prospects in the Budget. It calls for a rapid increase in electric vehicles, renewable energy and buildings with thicker walls that could provide natural insulation from cold.

Clear ambition

So, the ambition is clear, but what about ability? UK’s ability (as for any country) to stick to its green commitments is thickly entwined with its economy. Further, the country has been the biggest beneficiary of European Investment Bank’s investments in renewable energy since 2007, taking a quarter of the Euro 7.2 billion. Some experts have wondered if a standalone UK would lose the bank’s support.

However, signals from the private sector are not discouraging. After initially putting its investments on “freeze”, Siemens has said that its 350 million pound-sterling blade plant at Hull on North Sea coast, will move forward. Siemens will build the blades for its 7 MW machines, 174 of which will be supplied to the Danish-owned Dong Energy’s Hornsea windfarm—a 1,200 MW leviathan in the North Sea. Dong Energy has said it awaits “more clarity” on Britain after Brexit, but nobody believes the world’s biggest offshore wind project will be called off.

Similarly, the French company, EDF intends to go ahead with its 3,200 MW nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point. Experts observe that these investments are coming up because of UK’s geographical advantages, which are not going to go away because of Brexit.

UK has little to boast in solar, but is pretty strong in ocean technologies. It is the world’s leader in offshore wind and British companies, such as Atlantis Resources and Tidal Lagoon Power, have done some pioneering work in ocean current and tidal power plants, bringing new technologies and energy sources to the world (see ‘The Future of Green may be Blue’, Business Line, May 10 http://goo.gl/zyvyfK].)

Whether more of such projects will come or not depends upon several factors but mainly the economy. The Fifth Carbon Budget, however, leaves scope for hope that there will be room for cutting edge renewable energy projects in standalone UK.

Nor is Brexit likely to have any impact on India’s green sector. There has been limited engagement with the UK on this count. When Prime Minister Modi went to the UK in November last year, a 60 million pound Indo-UK Clean Energy Research Programme was announced, not a big amount to worry about.

Big investments

A British company called Lightsource said then it would invest 2 billion pounds in India’s solar sector. Another company, Intelligent Energy, makes fuel cells that energise telecom towers, replacing diesel-powered generators. Intelligent Energy has been active in India for a number of years, and has taken over GTL Ltd’s energy management business for 1.2 billion pounds. Plans of these companies are unlikely to be affected by Brexit.

Thus, Brexit is likely to be at worst neutral for green economy. However, that is as things stand today. Andrea Leadsom wants people to believe that after Brexit the “path is clearer”. But all one can say today is that there is a path. It could be littered with hurdles such as the type of exit deal UK would get from EU, whether the country would turn too protectionist or not, whether Scotland would remain part of UK and so on.

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