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The North-East monsoon is expected to settle over the Southern part of the Peninsula by October 30 (Sunday), after being delayed by at least 10 days.
This will happen as a weakened cyclone Kyant makes landfall over south coastal Andhra Pradesh by Friday, according to the India Met Department (IMD).
Conditions building The IMD said that conditions would become favourable for the exit of the South-west monsoon remnant and the simultaneous onset of the North-East monsoon during this phase.
Kyant is seen hitting the home stretch towards the south Andhra Pradesh coast just to the north of Chennai, as depicted by wind field maps plotted by the India Met Department.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suspects that Kyant may start weakening from a distance farther out into the sea than earlier thought.
It sees the storm washing over south Andhra Pradesh with no more than a whimper, but, importantly, setting up the platform for the North-East monsoon.
Weather warning The weather warning put out by the IMD for the next three to four days is as follows:
Squally winds reaching a speed of 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr will prevail along and off South Odisha on Thursday and along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast from Thursday to Sunday.
Sea conditions will be ‘rough’ to ‘very rough’ along and off South Odisha on Thursday and along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast from Thursday to Sunday.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast from Thursday.
Rain for Tamil Nadu also Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places over South Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh on Thursday and Friday.
Light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh from Friday to Sunday and over north coastal Tamil Nadu from Saturday to Monday.
Trailing storms Meanwhile, global model forecasts have also indicated that cyclone Kyant will be trailed by a couple of storms of varying strength. The first one is likely to be generated off the Myanmar coast as soon as a weakened Kyant makes landfall over India’s East Coast but there is no model consenus on its likely track.
Some of the models see the storm sliding along the Myanmar-Bangladesh coast towards the Bengal coast in India while others take it out into the East-central Bay on a path to the Odisha coast.
The US Climate Prediction Centre assessed that ‘there is a moderate risk of a storm’ from a disturbance that rolls in from across the Malay Peninsula.”
The US agency also saw a wave of rainfall moving west over the Bay between November 2-8, ‘reminiscent of a potential tropical cyclone track’, that bears watching.
The European Centre is more forthcoming with its assessment here, pointing out that a full-fledged storm may be approaching Chennai by November 5.
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