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Updated forecasts by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) say that the chance of an El Nino occurring later this year has increased.
A likely rain deficit being generated in India will be recorded mostly in the country’s West and North-West during the impending monsoon, says Asia Pacific Climate Centre based in Busan, South Korea.
El Nino means anomalous warming of the east of the Pacific Ocean, causing evaporation, cloud-building and storminess to be confined to that area of the vast ocean.
This leaves the West of the Pacific (closer to the Indian subcontinent) literally in the cold, with cooler waters inhibiting the formation of rain-making phenomena.
El Nino years have been mostly associated with a drought in India, but the reverse may not entirely hold true either.
Some of them have witnessed surplus monsoon in combination with other factors.
What makes this year special is that there is near-unanimity among global forecast models about the June-September rain season, taking a hit from a developing El Nino.
Seasonal as well as disaggregated monthly assessment of rain by the South Korean agency goes to bring this out in clear terms.
Updated outlookUpdated seasonal outlook (April-May-June and July-August-September) covering the monsoon months areas follows:
April-May-June:
Rain deficit indicated for Gujarat; whole of central and East India, North-East India
Rain surplus in south peninsular India and, to some extent, North-West India
July-August-September:
Rain deficit indicated for West, North-West and North India; parts of peninsular India; North-East India
Rain surplus in East IndiaApril: Rain deficit indicated for south peninsular India; East India; northern parts (Jammu and Kashmir) of North-West India
Limited gains in central parts of North-West India (Delhi, Haryana and neighbourhood)
May: Rain deficit indicated for Central India; North-West India; East India
Rain surplus in south peninsular India; parts of Saurashtra; East of Jammu and Kashmir
June: Rain deficit indicated for entire Central India; East India (Bihar and parts of adjoining Uttar Pradesh)
Rain surplus in South peninsular India (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rayalaseema); West Rajasthan; Gangetic West Bengal; limited gains for North-West India
July: Rain deficit indicated for the entire North-Western quarter (North-West and adjoining Central India); South peninsular India; and North-East India
Rain surplus in East India (Odisha, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh)
August: Rain deficit indicated for North-West India and South peninsular India
Rain surplus in Central and East India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab)
September: Rain deficit indicated for West (Gujarat) and North-West India
Rain surplus in South peninsular India; parts of East India
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