BJP, interrupted

The dynamism of Indian politics has once again proved there is no constant. The results of the Assembly by-elections in four States suggest that the momentum of the seemingly unstoppable march of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance — which picked up a mere eight of the 18 seats — has been retarded. In the Lok Sabha election held three months ago, the NDA had won 14 of the 18 Assembly segments. The principal reason for the relatively poor performance was Bihar, where the so-called grand alliance between Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the Congress managed to win in six of the 10 seats, signalling that it is much too early to write an obituary of caste politics in the Hindi heartland. Although both Lalu Prasad and Nitish are too experienced to read too much into this marginal victory, they are shrewd enough to use it to further their partnership. As Nitish Kumar himself admitted, building this coalition is still a work in progress; but in its first litmus test, there is no denying that the Mandal veterans have dealt a blow to the BJP.

The results reflect that the playing field is very different when it comes to the Assembly elections — which are influenced by local factors — and less susceptible to the sway of a presidential-style campaign that Narendra Modi successfully undertook to storm to power earlier this year. Karnataka Chief Minister Siddharamiah’s dogged ability to wrest the Bellary (Rural) seat right from under B Sriramulu’s nose is a case in point. Even in BS Yeddyurappa’s home-ground Shikaripura in Shimoga, the victory margins leave much to be desired for the BJP. While there were no surprises in Punjab, where Preneet Kaur easily won from Patiala and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) was able to retain Talwandi Sabu, the Congress can take some solace in wresting one seat from the BJP’s kitty in Madhya Pradesh.

However, it would be a mistake to interpret this result as having enormous political implications for the rest of the Hindi heartland. Such a view fails to acknowledge that the kind of grand alliance forged in Bihar does not seem to be getting replicated elsewhere. In neighbouring Uttar Pradesh for instance, Lalu Prasad’s former comrade Mulayam Singh Yadav’s popularity is at an all-time low. In the Lok Sabha by-elections to Mainpuri and to 10 Assembly seats, the Samajwadi Party is bracing for a body blow while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has decided not to contest at all. The field, therefore, is wide open for the BJP to consolidate its already formidable position in this politically volatile State. The real test for the BJP will be when Assembly elections are held in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana — States the NDA swept in the Lok Sabha election. Serious reverses here and the so-called ‘Modi magic’ will come under sharp scrutiny.

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