The road to 2019 passes through Bhopal, the capital of Madhya Pradesh (MP). It is not the state’s geographical location — at the centre of India — that makes it critical, but its history of political activity. MP, along with Chhattisgarh, holds the key to understanding what could happen in next year’s parliamentary elections.

The results of elections in five states, to be announced on Tuesday, will foreshadow what to expect in the general elections, a mere six months away. In the three Hindi heartland states of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the electoral battle is a direct face-off between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. In Telangana in the south, the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), along with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM), fought the Congress-led mahakutami (or grand alliance) that includes the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS). In Mizoram, the last Congress-ruled state in the North-East, the battle has been between the Grand Old Party and the Mizo National Front (MNF), with the BJP lurking in the background, hoping to enter the government on the shoulders of the MNF.

In MP and Chhattisgarh, it isn’t just a straight fight between the two national parties. The BJP has been in power in the two states for 15 years, and for almost five years at the Centre. The Congress, instead of taking the safer path of an alliance with smaller political outfits such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the Samajwadi Party (SP), risked going it alone in both states to test its own strength.

In MP, the incumbent BJP, its pre-1980 predecessor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, as well as the Congress, have a record of vigorous political activity. It goes back close to a century — if one includes the work put in by the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) in building the BJP’s foundations, and the freedom struggle which the Congress led.

If the BJP, therefore, is able to retain the state after 15 years in power, it would mean that even widespread and continuing rural distress and corruption could not tempt the electorate to opt for the Congress: Modi supporters would assert that his persona, rather than that of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, did the trick.

A victory in MP would thus make the possibility of a second term for the Narendra Modi-led BJP at the Centre more likely.

However, if the Congress wrests the state from the BJP, it will place itself in a commanding position for any opposition grand alliance in 2019. The party will be seen as making a comeback; it will also be a vindication of its decision to not align with smaller parties. However, a fourth successive defeat in MP will prove the reverse.

In Chhattisgarh, which was a part of MP till 2000, and where the difference in vote share between the BJP and the Congress is about 1 per cent, a victory for the latter, despite the presence of the Ajit Jogi-led Janata Congress Chhattisgarh-BSP combine in the fray, will be a big boost.

This, in turn, will impact the seat-sharing arrangement for next year’s general elections among those opposed to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and, to some extent, in Bihar. As things stand, unhappy with the treatment meted out to them in MP and Chhattisgarh, the BSP and the SP do not appear keen to include the Congress in any electoral understanding for UP — though they may provide space to smaller parties such as the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). But if the Congress wins MP as well as Rajasthan, the SP and BSP may be forced to redraw their plans for UP. In Bihar, it will cement the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance, while forcing the BJP’s restive allies in that state to reconsider their options.

The contest in MP is considered too close to call, but reports from the ground suggest Rajasthan may soon return to the Congress fold. For the Congress, however, a solitary win will not warrant talk of a revival — it will be dismissed as the result of strong anti-incumbency against the Vasundhara Raje government. The Congress needs to win two states or more to be considered back in the reckoning.

If MP and Chhattisgarh will demonstrate whether the Congress is back on its feet, Telangana will shine the torch on the shape of things to come. If the mahakutami defeats the reigning TRS, it will strengthen the resolve of various parties that do not wish to see a BJP-led government at the Centre in 2019 to work together. Of course, any opposition mahagatbandhan or grand alliance at the Centre will be made up of smaller state-specific arrangements.

That leaves Mizoram: The tendency of most states in the Northeast is to vote for the party ruling at the Centre or likely to work with it. If the MNF wins Mizoram, it won’t be surprising — and it will be a boost for the BJP, by proxy. If the Congress succeeds in retaining the state,it would be read as a sign that voters in the Northeastern state do not see the BJP returning to power at the Centre in 2019.

Smita Gupta is a Delhi-based political writer working with The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy

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