Amid tariff war with US, China increases its exports to other countries like India, European Union (EU), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as per the May trade data, stated a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

The report highlighted that China's latest trade data for May 2025 shows a significant shift in its export destinations, with a sharp decline in shipments to the US. As per the report, while China's overall exports rose modestly by 4.6 per cent, from $302.1 billion in May 2024 to $316.2 billion in May 2025, its exports to the US fell drastically by 34.5 per cent, from $44 billion to $28.8 billion during the same period. This steep drop in trade with the US is being offset by increased exports to other regions.

Exports to the EU rose by 12 per cent to $49.5 billion, to ASEAN by 15 per cent to $58.4 billion, and to India by 12.4 per cent to $11.13 billion. This redirection in trade indicates how global supply chains are quickly adapting amid rising geopolitical and economic tensions. The report also warned countries to be cautious of any aggressive export push that could lead to the dumping of goods.

GTRI said, "A dramatic decline in China's shipments to the US is being partially offset by increased exports to other markets. Countries should watch out for any incidence of export push by dumping." India's own trade numbers confirm this shift. Although India's total merchandise imports slightly declined by 1.8 per cent year-on-year, from $61.7 billion in May 2024 to $60.6 billion in May 2025, the fall was mainly due to lower imports of oil and gold. If petroleum, gold, and diamonds are excluded, imports rose by 12 per cent, from $36.8 billion to $41.2 billion.

Two major categories led this import growth: electronics, which rose 27.5 per cent to $9.1 billion, and machinery and computers, which increased by 22 per cent to $5 billion. A significant part of these imports came from China, as India's combined imports from China and Hong Kong surged by 22.4 per cent to $12 billion from $9.8 billion last year. On the export side, India's shipments to the US grew by 17.3 per cent to $8.8 billion in May 2025, with smartphones playing a major role in this rise.

The data reflects ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, which may continue unless a tariff agreement is reached. For India, the global environment remains uncertain due to rising conflicts in the Middle East, involving Iran, Israel, Hamas, and the Houthis, which could disrupt key shipping routes and oil supplies. Amid these global shifts, the report outlined that India should remain cautious, focus on balanced trade agreements, and improve the ease of doing business to strengthen its trade position.

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Published on June 17, 2025