Political Tinder, TN-style

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa sounded the poll bugle on the last day of 2015 at the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party’s general body meeting in Chennai.

“All elections cannot be faced with the same strategy,” she told the rapt cadre. “I will take the right decision at the right time, according to the prevailing political situation.”

Inwardly, leaders of rival parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the Congress and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) chuckled with glee. For the formidable Jaya to consider an electoral alliance must surely mean a perceived dent in her popularity, they reasoned.

Some DMK leaders, who did not wish to be named, said it was now a matter of stitching up the right Opposition alliance.

DMK-Congress again?

“We certainly need the Congress for the parliamentary polls more than the Assembly elections,” said a senior DMK leader, who wished to remain unnamed. “Considering that the Modi government has lost its sheen now, an alliance with the Congress will help us four years after,” he added.

The Congress would be an important, if junior ally for any party, if one goes by the 2011 state election data. The national party recorded a vote share of 9.3 per cent. This, of course, was before the state unit witnessed a mutiny and the former Union Minister GK Vasan exited to revive his late father’s Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), taking with him a sizeable chunk of the already lean cadre. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress fared poorly on its own in the state and garnered barely half its previous vote share.

Tamil Nadu Congress Committee president EVKS Elangovan insisted that GK Vasan’s exit had made no dent on the party. “The party is much stronger than a year ago,” he claimed.

On December 28, DMK chief M Karunanidhi once again extended a hand of friendship to the Congress. “We will not leave out the Congress when we invite parties as part of the DMK alliance,” he told reporters in Chennai.

“Vasan’s exit would affect the Congress by maybe one or two per cent vote share at the most,” confided the senior DMK leader quoted earlier. “They are still relevant as a national party and have a vote bank.”

Congress insiders say the party is likely to once again ally with the DMK, especially now that Rahul Gandhi has given the green signal at a recent meeting. “Rahul initially was not keen on the DMK, so we were waiting for word,” another Congress leader said. “The DMK and Congress are natural allies. We have issues like 2G, which we are tied together by. We don’t see much of an option otherwise in the state,” he said.

The Congress state president, however, maintains that the High Command would take the final call. “Right now we are concentrating on all constituencies, getting ready to battle all 234 seats,” Elangovan said. “But if there is a necessity that there should be an alliance with others, the High Command will decide. You cannot say we are natural allies. We have allied or fought alone depending on the need of the times,” he said.

The price for the DMK, though, might be a steep one. Congress insiders say the national party would certainly insist on power sharing if the combine comes to power in 2016. Elangovan in fact has made this point repeatedly in public meetings over the past four months.

AIADMK-BJP again?

Analysts point out that the ruling AIADMK was riding high until the December 2015 floods submerged at least partly the dream of a consecutive landslide victory. “Jayalalithaa hinting that she could be open to an alliance shows this,” said N Sathiyamoorthy, Director of Observer Research Foundation in Chennai.

But with at least four chief ministerial hopefuls lurking in different parties, finding allies may be easier said than done for the powerful Dravidian party. “There is still time to decide,” explained a senior leader of the AIADMK, also under condition of anonymity. “We are studying the alliance situation, which is very fluid as of now. The recommendation at the field level so far is to contest alone. Now mandate is given to Madam. She will take a call after studying the political situation,” he said.

In 2011, with DMDK’s Vijaykanth for an ally, the AIADMK swept to power with a huge majority, winning a whopping 203 seats out of 234. Subsequently, however, relations with Vijaykanth soured and the once “friendly Opposition” quickly turned on the ruling party. The AIADMK is also riding high on the back of a sweep in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, where it singlehandedly won 37 out of 39 seats.

Post-floods, however, a sombre mood has set in within the party. Its IT wing has embarked on social media propaganda since late-December, releasing audio clips and videos that defend the party and government against criticism of its handling of the floods. In one such audio clip released on WhatsApp, the message is clear — “The Chief Minister requested the Centre to bring in an ordinance to enable the performance of Jallikattu (bull-taming sport) in the state. The Centre too has agreed and said they will bring in an ordinance within a few days… It was the DMK and Congress government which banned Jallikattu without respecting the culture and sentiment of the Tamils,” says the recording released on January 2. The Supreme Court may have forestalled the revival of Jallikattu, but Jayalalithaa’s continuing bonhomie with the ruling NDA has given rise to speculations of a likely alliance.

“At present, we are cats on the wall as far as an alliance with the BJP is concerned,” grinned the AIADMK leader contacted for this story. “It is a double-edged weapon,” he added meaningfully.

“No other party will really add to the vote share of the AIADMK,” said political analyst Sathiyamoorthy. “The only positive in an alliance for the AIADMK is that it will tell its voters that it is not left alone. But even if the AIADMK benefits by the tiny one to two per cent vote share brought in by the BJP, it stands to lose much more in terms of minority votes and anti-intolerance votes. Also any alliance partner could demoralise the AIADMK cadre as workers know it cannot add to the vote share. For the DMK, on the other hand, allying with parties like the Congress and the DMDK can add some strength in terms of vote share, but, more importantly, it will add to the morale of the DMK cadre, who remain clueless at the moment,” he said.

The BJP continues to send conflicting signals. While calling itself an alternative to the Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu, it continues to maintain secure and noncommittal relations with the ruling party. “It is too early to say who will or will not be part of the NDA in Tamil Nadu,” said H Raja, national general secretary of the BJP. “The party leadership in Delhi will decide.”

Rush for swing votes

The DMK and the AIADMK can both boast a dependable vote share of around 25 per cent each, as confirmed by past performances in state and parliamentary polls. Another 20 per cent of the vote share is gobbled up by other, smaller parties in the state. What analysts call the ‘swing voters’ constitute the rest of the voter pie. “The swing voters constitute about 25-30 per cent,” explained Sathiyamoorthy. “They are possibly the third-largest constituency after the DMK and the AIADMK.”

It is for these swing voters — the young and upwardly mobile, voters without the baggage of ideology — that political parties in Tamil Nadu will wage a pitched battle. These swing voters are the reason for the inevitable change in political rhetoric from all parties — keywords like development, change, progress and aspirations are now being bandied about by parties once steeped in traditional campaigns of caste calculations and freebies.

A group of smaller parties including Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and the CPI and CPM have come together to form an alternative Third Front, calling themselves the People’s Welfare Front. This move too, say insiders in these parties, was precipitated by a perception that the swing voters were looking for a change, an alternative to the two Dravidian parties. The DMDK’s Vijaykanth is making full use of his time in the sun, as he is wooed by all political parties, except the AIADMK.

As talks shift into high gear, what is clear however is that 2016 will be a battle, yet again, between the two Dravidian behemoths. An alternative is yet to appear on the horizon.

Alliances that clicked, and those that didn’t

2006

The winner :

DMK+ with 163 seats

DMK, Congress, Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), CPI, CPM

The loser :

AIADMK+ with 69 seats

AIADMK, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK)

The lone ranger :

Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), winning one seat in its first ever election

2009

The winner :

UPA with 27 seats

DMK, Congress, VCK

The loser :

Third Front with 12 seats

AIADMK, MDMK, PMK, CPI, CPM

The lone ranger :

DMDK, which did not win a seat

2011

The winner :

AIADMK+ with 203 seats

AIADMK, DMDK, CPI, CPM and other smaller parties

The loser :

DMK+ with 31 seats

DMK, Congress, PMK, VCK and other smaller parties

2014

The winner :

AIADMK with 37 seats

AIADMK, DMDK, CPI, CPM and other smaller parties

The loser :

Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) with 0 seats

DMK, VCK and other smaller parties

The upstart :

NDA with 2 seats

DMDK, PMK, BJP, MDMK and other smaller parties

Source: Election Commission of India

S andhya Ravishankaris an independent Chennai-based journalist

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