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The week-end may unravel fresh but significant weather events even as Assam and neighbourhood might sustain the “melting pot” marked by intense convective activity and unprecedentedly heavy and violently localised precipitation.
A weather warning issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday that ongoing isolated heavy rainfall could persist over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya until Friday morning.
An IMD outlook has also mounted a watch for a fresh western disturbance over the western Himalayas from Saturday.
This will be matched only by the return to heat wave conditions over central India and the build-up of an untimely low-pressure area in southeast Bay of Bengal almost simultaneously.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts saw the weak low-pressure area being tossed up by a prevailing easterly wave and heading towards southwest Bay of Bengal. The ECMWF graphic showed the system dropping anchor east of Sri Lanka and south-southeast of the Tamil Nadu coast by April 2.
Other global trackers have initially given a thumbs-down to the building ‘low,' which they expected to keep move north-northwest to east-central Bay.
While doing so, it would also have just strayed into relatively cooler waters, which would slow it down. Some rains are there for the asking, but most of which could fall down over western Thailand and adjoining southwest Myanmar.
On Tuesday, maximum temperatures rose by 4 to 5 deg Celsius over Delhi and 2 to 3 deg Celsius over many parts of Haryana and some parts of Punjab and north Rajasthan.
They were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and interior Orissa. But the highest maximum temperature of 40.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Gulbarga in Karnataka.
Thus, there have not been oppressively hot conditions reported from anywhere in the country on a day when isolated rains broke out over Assam, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. But maximum and minimum temperatures may rise by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over west and central India before evolving into full-scale heat wave conditions.
Satellite pictures showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea. The weather-maker upper air cyclonic circulation over Assam and neighbourhood persisted in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Its power of endurance has broken open a north-to-south upper air trough from Bihar to north coastal Andhra Pradesh, exposing this region also to some volatile weather. An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Kerala and neighbourhood in lower levels.
THUNDERSHOWERS
A short-term forecast by the IMD said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and Kerala until Saturday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers may break over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands until Thursday morning and increase thereafter.
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