Cotton farmers in North pray for no-more rains

With their crop ready for picking in less than 15 days from now, cotton growers in Northwest India are a nervous lot. What they fear right now, unlike farmers in other parts of the country, is the prospect of excessive rains.

In the contiguous belt covering Southwest Punjab (Ferozepur, Muktsar, Bhatinda and Mansa), West Haryana (Sirsa, Fatehabad, Jind, Hissar and Bhiwani) and North Rajasthan (Ganganagar and Hanumangarh), the cotton crop is currently in the late boll development stage.

In another 10-15 days, the bolls (pods containing the seeds from which the cotton fibres grow) would begin to burst, leaving the exposed dried fibres ready for the “first-flush” picking. In some areas, where sowing was over by end-April, the boll opening is expected over the next week itself.

“We are having rains now. If they continue for too long, especially after the bolls open, it could affect the kapas (seed-cotton) quality and the price we would get,” Mr Gurtej Singh, a 15-acre grower from Gagrana village in Mansa, told Business Line over phone.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast an “increase in rainfall activity over Northwest India” in its weather outlook till September 2. The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center have also pointed at enhanced probabilities of scattered moderate to heavy rains across this region for the entire first week of September.

Persistent rain pitfalls

Dr Paresh Verma, Director (Research) at DSCL Bioseed Research India Pvt. Ltd, felt that while rains in the next 5-6 days are “all right,” they could create problems thereafter. “Boll opening requires dry conditions. If it keeps raining, the bolls may not open, but the moisture that enters would cause them to rot,” he explained.

The good thing, though, is that much of sowing in the North-West this time took place around mid-May, stretching right till the month-end. “Normally, sowing here peaks in early-May, which got extended because of delayed wheat harvesting. Cotton-picking will, accordingly, start peaking only towards end-September,” said Dr B.S. Sidhu, Director of Agriculture, Punjab Government.

Even otherwise, farmers don't go for picking until they see at least 10-15 out of the average 60-80 bolls in every plant burst. Only then would it justify their expenditure on labour, Dr Verma pointed out.

Cotton is usually a 170-180 day crop that yields three flushes – the first after 120-125 days and the others following at subsequent 20-30 days intervals. Prior to these are the formation of “squares” or buds on the branches of plants (40-45 days after sowing); the morphing of the buds into flowers (from roughly 60 days); the setting of the bolls (80-90 days); and their further development and opening after 110-120 days.

Bumper harvest?

While in Northwest India, the crop has attained advanced boll maturity, it is still at the early to late-flowering stages in Central India (where sowing normally happens during the second half of June, but continued till mid-July this time due to late monsoon arrival) and Andhra Pradesh/Karnataka (where farmers plant throughout July).

“There is no harm if it rains in these (latter) regions. The crop, on the whole, looks good so far and we seem to be having no major problems, apart from some reports of leaf curl virus in Rajasthan,” noted Dr K.R. Kranthi, Director of the Nagpur-based Central Institute of Cotton Research.

Farmers have till now sown nearly 12 million hectares – a record – under cotton this year, with acreages up in all States. “We may have had more area but for the break in the monsoon in late June, which held up plantings in central India. Simultaneously, there was a spike in soya bean prices, which led to some farmers opting for that crop, as against their original plans to sow cotton,” said Dr Gyanendra Shukla, Director (Corporate Affairs), Monsanto India Ltd.

He was also optimistic about the price outlook for the Indian crop on two counts: Dry weather impacting production in the US (the world's No. 1 exporter) and floods in Pakistan that have inundated large cotton-growing tracts in Sindh province.

(With inputs from Vinson Kurian in Thiruvananthapuram)

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