Deep depression refuses to budge, pours it down

After a full day over stay over land, the deep depression over Gangetic West Bengal has retained all its strength and vigour, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said this (Saturday) morning.

This would mean that the system packs tremendous capacity to sustain the torrential rainfall it has already generated in Gangetic West Bengal. The system is not shown as weakening any time soon either.

It moved westward relative to its position the previous night and lies centred close to southeast of Bankura, the IMD update said.

Satellite imagery early this morning showed rain-bearing clouds hanging heavy over parts of east India, Tripura, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, north and central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

A weather warning valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would continue at a few places over north Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand and at isolated places over Chhattisgarh, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.

Isolated extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 25 cm may also occur over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.

Isolated thunder squalls would occur over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh from a prevailing trough-cyclonic circulation combine.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, some parts of east Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of east Uttar Pradesh during the next three days.

Meanwhile, the deep depression is expected to move in a more west-northwesterly track, adhering to text book format that monsoon depressions adopt, unless affected by headwinds from transiting troughs.

The system would now turn the real game changer, given its sweep and intensity in being able to bring the seasonal rains into large parts of east-central, central and adjoining west India (principally northern Maharashtra and entire Madhya Pradesh) where the monsoon is lagging behind by a week.

The delay was caused by the failure of the Bay to erupt in activity and synchronise with the Arabian Sea arm of monsoon that galloped its way north along the west coast and currently finds stalled at Porbandar in Gujarat.

In this manner, the run-away Arabian Sea arm lacked the support from the Bay, which is normally a given, and forfeited the early momentum.

But the prevailing Bay system is expected to make some amends as its sheer strength would continue to sustain the southwesterly flows across the Equator and excite activity along the west coast, exemplified best by the continued presence of a vibrant offshore trough.

Global models as well as that of the IMD signal the possibility of flooding rains being unleashed over central India and west India as the deep depression makes it slow but elaborately productive run west-northwest.

Unlike earlier projections, consensus view is now veering round to the possibility of the gradually weakening system sparing Mumbai its direct fury (but not all the rains) and wheeling into southwest Rajasthan and across the border into Pakistan.

This would pan out over the next three to four days. Meanwhile, the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, which correctly predicted the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal storms, has hinted that the Orissa/West Bengal coast might another low-pressure area over the next 8 to 10 days.

The system, however, is shown as tracking north-northeast along the coast to Gangetic West Bengal presumably under the influence of a westerly trough.

A short-term IMD outlook said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over the west coast, interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern States, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and the rest of east India, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

Rainfall activity will increase over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha after two days.

Scattered rain or thundershowers is likely over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and north coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated rain or thundershowers would occur over rest of the country.

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