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The low-pressure area over east-central Arabian Sea has weakened, signalling an end to the wet spell over peninsula from last weekend.
In the process, it has cleared the way for a successor brewing in the west-central Bay of Bengal. Associated rain belt is seen progressing west-northwest from Thursday across central peninsula towards Gujarat.
Fresh ‘low’Along the way, the new ‘low’ may weaken over west Maharashtra dumping heavy rain over Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Mumbai and west Madhya Pradesh towards the weekend.
By Monday, September 1, the low-pressure is projected to be active and sitting over north-west Maharashtra, Mumbai and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh.
The US National Centres of Environmental Prediction saw its intensified form stepping out into north-east Arabian Sea and ramping up further into a likely depression.
It could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall along Konkan-Goa, Mumbai and adjoining west Maharashtra, and south Gujarat during the weekend and early next.
Assured spellIn this manner, a wave of rain is assured for central and adjoining central India, northern parts of the West Coast, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh and parts of east Rajasthan.
At the end of this run, available indications suggest the west-central Bay may get into act the once again, rustling up another rain-bearing system there.
A cyclone circulation-tracker based in the US sees a low-pressure forming here and moving into east-central India before cutting a way towards Madhya Pradesh.
The weakened ‘low’ is forecast to spin towards Gujarat and south-west Rajasthan. Successive ‘lows’ would keep the advancing anti-cyclonic circulation (associated with monsoon withdrawal) at bay over Rajasthan.
Last monthDuring this phase into early September, the last full month of monsoonal rain, the peninsula and the North-East are forecast to witness no major rain activity.
Elsewhere in the North-West, a western disturbance is waiting its turn to enter the country to bring passing showers over the hill regions.
It is also possible that the wave may briefly interact with the rain wave over Konkan-Goa and set up a wet corridor across east Rajasthan and south-west Uttar Pradesh.
It may also drop some rain over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar before exiting the country towards the east-northeast.
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