India’s kharif rice, pulses and oilseeds output estimated lower on El Nino impact

El Nino-induced vagaries of the South-West monsoon, which ended this month, are likely to have affected the production of kharif crops this season (July 2023-June 2024). Compared with last season, the output of several crops is likey to decline, data released late on Friday night by the Ministry of Agriculture show.

Tur (pigeon pea) production has been estimated higher. However the production estimates of crops such as jowar, bajra, ragi and sunflower have been withheld.

The total production of foodgrains production has been estimated at 148.57 million tonnes (mt) in the first kharif estimates, which is 4.6 per cent lower than the final estimates of 155.71 mt for last season’s kharif.

Estimates hinge on States data

Rice production is seen 3.8 per cent lower at 106.31 mt against 110.51 mt last season. The government targeted an output of 158.06 mt of foodgrains, including 111 mt of rice for the kharif season this year.

The Ministry said the estimation of crop production depends on data provided by the States and validated by the Centre using information from sources such as the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG), Remote Sensing estimates, econometric modelling, historical trends and inputs collected from farmer surveys.

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The area under paddy, the major kharif cereal crop, was estimated higher by around 2 lakh hectares over the previous year. However the driest August this year since 1901 has affected the crop yield at many places dependent on monsoon rains, leading to the decline, officials said. The country received below-normal rainfall this year during the June-September monsoon season.

This year, the South-West monsoon turned out to be indifferent with the event setting in late and heavy rains lashing some parts of the country in July. August witnessed a 32 per cent deficient rainfall before normalcy was restored in September. The monsoon withdrew on October 19 this year. Overall, the monsoon was deficient this year.

However, India has been going through a prolonged dry period since September last week. US weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that 21 per cent of India is reeling under drought, caused by the impact of warm ocean water phenomenon El Nino.

Climatic conditions hit pulses

Production of pulses is seen lower at 6.6 per cent to 7.12 mt from 7.62 mt, which the Ministry said is because of “climatic conditions”. However, the output of tur is set to be 3.42 mt from 3.31 mt, up by 3.3 per cent despite its acreage declining by nearly 5 per cent to 43.87 lakh hectares (lh).

On the other hand, moong production is estimated to fall by 18 per cent to 1.41 mt from 1.72 mt and that of urad by 14.7 per cent to 1.51 mt from 1.77 mt. After speaking to farmers, traders, processors and experts, businessline reported a likely fall of 40 per cent drop in moong production in the largest-producing State - Rajasthan - this season due to a substantial drop in yield.

Sugarcane turns bitter

Sugarcane production is pegged 11.4 per cent lower at 434.79 mt from 490.53 mt. A drop of nearly 56 mt in sugarcane output may force the Food Ministry to further tighten the sugar policy as it was waiting for the first estimates, industry experts and traders said.

Cotton production has been estimated at 31.66 million bales of 170 kg each, which is 5.9 per cent lower from 33.66 million bales in 2022. Experts fear it may further drop in subsequent estimates due to pink bollworm impact in many parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, besides problems in Gujarat.

Oilseeds production has been estimated at 21.53 mt, which is 17.7 per cent less than 26.15 mt mainly due to a severe shortfall in soyabean output following drought-like conditions in key growing States of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra for a long spell in August and subsequent heavy rainfall in September.

Soyabean crop output is likely to dip by 23.1 per cent to 11.53 mt from 14.99 mt while groundnut production to drop by 8.5 per cent to 7.83 mt from 8.56 mt.

Though the government has released total estimates of output of Shree Anna at 12.66 mt, down by 9 per cent from 13.91 mt, it has not released estimates for individual output of jowar, bajra, ragi and other millets. Kharif-grown maize, which makes up 60 per cent of the country’s annual output, has been estimated at 22.48 mt, down by 5 per cent from 23.67 mt from last season. The total production of Shree Anna and coarse cereals may be 35.14 mt, which is 6.5 per cent lower from 37.58 mt a year earlier.

In fibre crops, jute and mesta output is likely to be 9.19 million bales of 180 kg each this year, which is 2.1 per cent down from 9.39 million bales in 2022.

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