The first advance estimates of kharif crops output in Rajasthan project a substantial increase in the output of cotton, moong and soyabean substantially this year from the 2022 season. However, the State government is likely to revise the production downwards in the next estimate after factoring in market arrivals and yield losses. This is because the current assessment is mainly based on acreage.

Production of cotton, which was affected by pink bollworm this year, has been estimated at 56.89 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), up from 27.76 lakh bales in 2022 while soyabean output has been pegged at 17.25 lakh tonnes (lt), up from 12.07 lt last year, according to State government data. Rajasthan is the third largest producer of these two crops.

Moong (green gram) production in Rajasthan, the biggest producer of the kharif-grown pulse, is estimated to increase 15.9 per cent to 13.62 lt from 11.75 lt last year. But moth, a local variety of moong, is likely to see a 9.8 per cent drop to 3.87 lt from 4.29 lt.

40% output drop?

However, traders said moong production in Rajasthan has dropped by about 40 per cent from last year and prices would start reflecting once the farmers exhaust their harvest.

“At least 40-45 per cent fall in production of moong this year has been reported by farmers. The current mandi price will start reflecting the situation after a month as currently, the arrival is as per demand,” said Babulal Khadawe, a trader in Rajasthan. He said most of the farmers are bringing to mandis their entire harvest at one go due to the lower output.

Devi Lal, a farmer from Phalki village 30 km off Merta, the country’s top trading hub of moong, said: “I have brought my entire 12 quintals moong to sell in the mandi as the production was substantially affected. It rained only once in August and it was very low.” He has harvested 60 quintals moong from his 30 acres of land last year. The situation is almost similar in nearby villages.

A state government official said the first estimate is normally arrived at even before fresh crops start arriving in mandis and subsequent estimates take note of yield and market arrivals data to make necessary corrections if required.

Prices below MSP

“Though arrivals are higher due to early harvest of the crop compared with last year, information received from farmers points to a drop in production., Rajendra Kumar, secretary of APMC mandi in Merta told business line.

According to Agmarknet data, the arrival at APMC agriculture market yard (mandi) in Merta was 17,455 tonnes between September 1 and October 16 this year against 11,753 tonnes a year ago. Mandi prices were ₹7,500-8,500 per quintal in September 1-October 16 this year against ₹5,000-6,800 a quintal year-ago period. The government has fixed the minimum support price of moong at ₹8,558/quintal.

On the other hand, top grower Rajasthan’s bajra (pearl millet) production is set to decline 11.6 per cent to 52.05 lt in 2023 from 58.9 lt last year. Maize output, too, has been pegged 2.5 per cent lower at 20.41 lt from 20.93 lt in 2022. The production of groundnut in Rajasthan is, however, likely to rise by 5.9 per cent to 20.36 lt from 19.23 lt.

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