Bay ‘low’ slows down, but still under watch

The low-pressure area in the Central Bay of Bengal became ‘marked’ on Tuesday but seems to be losing time in terms of its prospects for significant intensification beyond a depression.

The India Met Department (IMD), in its evening bulletin, extended the watch for its intensification for another 24 hours.

The IMD has also withdrawn from its bulletin its earlier outlook for further intensification, though a warm pool of waters close to the north Andhra Pradesh coast presented a sliver of opportunity.

But the proximity to the coast and surge of dry north-westerly winds from over land conspire to act against this; given these, the next 24 hours would prove crucial in this context.

Meanwhile, the IMD had forecast squally winds with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr and gusting to 60 km/hr by Tuesday evening, which corresponds to those of a monsoon depression. Fishermen have been advised against venturing out into the seas around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Thunderstorms and lightning are likely at isolated places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds with speeds gusting to 60 km/hr are likely along North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Coastal Odisha tomorrow, the IMD outlook said.

The US Climate Prediction Centre does not see the Peninsula making any major gains in precipitation as the depression crosses the Andhra-Odisha coast.

Instead, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and the plains of Bengal would benefit, since the causative weather system would be guided north-east along the coast by prevailing winds from the North-West.

The rains, though not very heavy, may come to the Peninsula from the week beginning October 23, associated with what looks like a delayed onset of the North-East monsoon.

These rains are likely to be generated from a fresh low-pressure area in the Bay that will ride on an incoming ‘pulse’ from erstwhile typhoon Khanun, which made landfall on the Vietnam coast yesterday.