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Just as very severe cyclone Nilofar prowls the Arabian Sea, churn is being initiated in the Andaman Sea and transmitted into the southwest Bay of Bengal, off Sri Lanka and south-east Tamil Nadu.
The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts sees the possibility of a likely weather system being fanned up off the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast by mid-week next week (early November).
Embedded system It would be embedded into an easterly wave lying extended from the Andaman Sea to the coasts off Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, which itself would bring a spell of wet weather for the region.
Easterly waves are counterparts of western disturbances that affect the north and northwest of India from time to time. Only difference is that the former is sea-bound while the latter is land-bound.
But instances are rare when seas to either side of the peninsula have simultaneously hosted storms during the northeast monsoon, though, technically speaking, they can happen.
A forecast by the US Navy Global Environmental Model (Navgem) gives a different spin to the scenario. It sees a residual circulation anchoring off the Kanyakumari coast over the next few days.
The circulation is shown growing in strength off Kanyakumari and climbing towards the Thiruvananthapuram/Nagercoil by November 3 up to when forecasts were available.
Landfall area The European Centre also seems to concur by indicating a build up of wind around Sri Lanka and adjoining Comorin region around this time. This warrants monitoring since easterly waves are potential big-time weather makers.
Very severe cyclone Nilofar will weaken a notch to severe cyclone while crossing the coast, but a few models are now indicating that central and south Gujarat could be affected.
The jaw-like formation of the beast that the map of Gujarat resembles as it looks out into the Arabian Sea is where Nilofar would deliver the blow, say these models.
Along with Kutch, other regions likely to be affected will be Jamnagar, Porbandar, Junagadh, Amreli, Bhavnagar and Rajkot, if these projections were to hold.
Interestingly, wind field projections put out by India Met Department suggests that Porbandar could bear the larger brunt.
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