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The severe cyclone Kyarr, over the East-Central Arabian Sea, has intensified into a very severe cyclone on Saturday morning, and lay about 270 km nearly to the West-South-West of Ratnagiri (Maharashtra); 360 km South-South-West of Mumbai; and 1,780 km East-South-East of Salalah (Oman).
An India Met Department (IMD) update said that the powerful cyclone has significantly grown in terms of lateral movement over the sea waters from where it lords over the weather of an entire region.
It nearly doubled its speed of movement from around 7 km/hr to 12 km/her during the intervening (Friday) night, while intensifying into a very severe cyclone and whipping up the waters around.
Kyarr is expected to move West-North-West towards the Oman coast during the next five days, a familiar track for Arabian Sea cyclones that form during the monsoon transition period.
Significantly, the IMD maintained its outlook for the cyclone to further intensify into an 'extremely severe cyclone' by Sunday, very near to a class-topping super cyclone.
Wind warning
Gale winds with speed reaching up to 100 km/hr gusting to 110 km/hr is prevailing around the cyclone centre over the East-Central Arabian Sea, the IMD said.
They were forecast to increase gradually becoming 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr and 120-130 km/hr gusting to 145 km/hr by Saturday morning over East-Central and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea.
These would further escalate to 170-180 km/hr gusting to 200 km/hr morning around the system centre.
From IMD website
Meanwhile, along India's West Coast, squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr may prevail along and off the Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Raigad districts of Maharashtra and Goa until tonight. They would wind down to 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr into Sunday morning.
Squally winds, with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr, gusting, to 60 km/hr, are forecast to prevail along and off the remaining coastal districts of North Maharashtra and the North-East Arabian Sea off the Gujarat coast during into Sunday night.
The sea condition would be 'high to very high' over the East-Central Arabian Sea around the storm centre until Saturday night and 'phenomenal' thereafter. It is very likely to become 'phenomenal' around the system centre over the West-Central Arabian Sea from Monday to Thursday.
Rough seas
It will be 'very rough to high' along and off the Maharashtra and Goa coasts and 'rough to very rough' along and off the North Karnataka coast until tonight. It is also very likely to be 'rough to very rough' over the North-East Arabian Sea off the South Gujarat coast during into Sunday night.
Fishermen are advised not to venture along and off the Maharashtra-Goa-Karnataka coasts and the North-East Arabian Sea and the adjoining South Gujarat coast until Sunday night. They are also advised not to venture into the East-Central Arabian Sea till Monday, and into the West-Central Arabian Sea from Monday to Thursday.
The IMD may have retained its forecast towards West-North-West towards the Oman coast, but there are at least two global models which beg to differ.
Source: IMD website
The prominent among them is the US Joint typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), which agrees with a West-North-West track initially, but opts for a slight turn to North-North-West with a glance over the Karachi coast in Pakistan.
Source: US Joint typhoon Warning Centre
An outlook by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, lends weight to the JTWC outlook. Also joining in is the The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
Source: The Weather Company
Rain outlook
Back home, the IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at isolated places over major parts of Peninsular India during next two days and over parts of East and North-East India during for Sunday. Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning are very likely over parts of the Peninsular, East, North-East and Central India during this period.
A detailed outlook for today said that heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning are forecast for Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Kerala.
Source: Skymet
According to private forecaster Skymet Weather, light to moderate rain with few heavy spells would continue over North Coastal Karnataka, Goa, and South Konkan and Goa into Monday. However, heavy to extremely heavy rain is ruled out for the Indian coast now.
By Sunday, as the cyclone moves further to West, its impact would start reducing over the Indian coast. By Monday, the winds may ease and vary between 30-40 km/hr gusting 50 km/hr.
After the next 24 hours, the extremely severe cyclone would gradually weaken into a very severe cyclone and later into a severe cyclone before touching the Oman Coast, most probably by Thursday, Skymet said.
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